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May 27, 2009

IPL 2009: an analytical overview

Anantha Narayanan

One may love or hate IPL but certainly cannot ignore it. I might complain and crib about many IPL-related things, but the players, their commitment, performances and their give-all attitude makes you forget the shortcomings and watch the same. It is also an analyst's dream. There is a lot of data waiting to be mined.

Cricinfo provides a comprehensive statistical section on IPL. In addition Rajesh has come out with an excellent statistical overview of IPL2. I have tried to make sure that I do not overlap any of the tables available in these two segments. What is given below is also a look into the future of T20 analysis. This has to be different to traditional Test/ODI analyses.

1. IPL2: Analysis of each over - Runs and wickets

Over Num  Runs  Avge  SD  Sd/M  Max Min  Wkts Avge  SD  SD/M
#  Overs       Runs      Ratio               Wkts      Ratio

1 114.0 633 5.55 3.89 0.70 22 0 38 0.33 0.59 1.76 2 114.0 767 6.73 4.65 0.69 20 0 33 0.29 0.49 1.70 3 114.0 821 7.20 4.32 0.60 21 0 26 0.23 0.46 2.01 4 114.0 881 7.73 4.16 0.54 22 0 26 0.23 0.46 2.01 5 113.5 922 8.10 5.08 0.63 22 0 31 0.27 0.50 1.84 6 113.0 902 7.98 4.85 0.61 25 0 33 0.29 0.47 1.62 7 113.0 640 5.66 3.71 0.65 24 1 30 0.27 0.46 1.74 8 113.0 752 6.65 3.16 0.47 17 1 17 0.15 0.40 2.69 9 113.0 778 6.88 3.63 0.53 20 2 27 0.24 0.50 2.10 10 112.2 685 6.10 3.28 0.54 17 1 33 0.29 0.51 1.74 11 112.0 729 6.51 3.43 0.53 18 1 30 0.27 0.53 1.99 12 112.0 819 7.31 3.82 0.52 18 0 26 0.23 0.48 2.07 13 111.0 802 7.23 3.96 0.55 20 1 27 0.24 0.47 1.93 14 110.1 822 7.46 4.07 0.54 19 0 30 0.27 0.52 1.91 15 109.4 871 7.94 4.14 0.52 24 1 36 0.33 0.52 1.60 16 105.5 865 8.17 4.59 0.56 22 0 45 0.43 0.63 1.47 17 104.2 955 9.15 4.39 0.48 22 0 43 0.41 0.61 1.49 18 102.2 982 9.60 4.73 0.49 24 1 47 0.46 0.62 1.35 19 96.2 865 8.98 5.26 0.59 28 0 44 0.46 0.61 1.33 20 82.5 829 10.01 5.19 0.52 26 1 77 0.93 0.89 0.96

16320 699

This is possibly the most significant of all analysis I have done for the shortest format. The spark came from a suggestion made by Nicholas who suggested that I look at each over in isolation and analyse bowler performances. I have worked on that concept and looked at each over from 1 to 20. For each of these overs I have determined the total runs conceded (all including extras), average runs conceded, standard deviation and maximum and minimum runs conceded. I have also looked at the total wickets captured (all including Run outs since we are not doing a Bowler analysis), average wickets and standard deviation. The results are fascinating.

- The drop in number of overs for the 5th over is caused by the D/L finish in 4.5 overs by Delhi. Similarly early finishes cause drops in later overs, after 9.
- The first over has been the most economical of all. This is understandable since the batsmen are yet to find their feet.
- Not surprisingly the seventh over is also as economical as the first. Immediately after the fielding restrictions are removed there is a lull in the scoring rate.
- Note also the sharp drop in scoring rate in the 10th over possibly indicating that the batsmen are playing carefully in anticipation of the strategy break. So it looks as if the strategy break, while filling the IPL/Sony coffers, is proving to be a dampener in scoring.
- Afterwards the rate builds up to a high 10+ runs per over in the 20th overs.
- Can anyone throw a light on the significant dip in the 19th over. It is not because quite a few matches finished in the 19th over since the calculation is based on exact number of balls rather than no of overs. Possible reason might be that very few runs are needed for a win and teams do this carefully.
- The Standard Deviation/Average ratio seems to be quite high during the first 6 overs indicating significant variations. Then it seems to settle to similar levels. However it should be noted that the later overs have high averages.
- The first over has seen a few more wickets fall than the next 14. Again possibly the bowlers are getting the batsmen before they find their feet.
- The 8th over wickets per over value is the lowest at 0.15. Possibly because the teams are still in a Power Play mood in the 7th over and take an over to settle down.
- The 16-19 overs are approximately similar until there is an explosion of wickets in the 20th over, all particularly understandable.

2. IPL2: 20+ Runs overs bowled

No MtId  Player Name       For   Vs   Over

1.0048 Singh R.P/H'meet DC KKR 19 28 runs 2.0048 Mashrafe Mortaza KKR DC 20 26 runs 3.0050 Patel M.M RR DD 19 25 runs 4.0057 Sehwag V DD DC 6 25 runs 5.0009 Salvi A.M DD CSK 7 24 runs 6.0022 Kamran Khan RR CSK 18 24 runs 7.0034 Singh V.R.V KXP CSK 15 24 runs 8.0043 Shoaib S.M DC DD 6 24 runs 9.0030 Sreesanth S KXP RR 19 23 runs 10.0056 Singh R.P DC RCB 20 23 runs 11.0043 Vaas WPUJC DC DD 20 23 runs 12.0001 Flintoff A CSK MI 18 22 runs 13.0010 Patel M.M RR KKR 16 22 runs 14.0034 Sreesanth S KXP CSK 17 22 runs 15.0051 Tyagi S CSK KKR 6 22 runs 16.0053 Hodge B.J KKR RR 1 22 runs 17.0009 Flintoff A CSK DD 19 22 runs 18.0056 Kumar P RCB DC 5 22 runs 19.0027 Dinda A.B KKR KXP 4 22 runs 20.0027 Pathan I.K KXP KKR 20 21 runs 21.0042 Sreesanth S KXP MI 5 21 runs 22.0031 Nannes D.P DD KKR 3 21 runs 23.0057 Nannes D.P DD DC 1 21 runs 24.0024 Abdulla Y.A KXP RCB 18 21 runs 25.0008 Kumble A RCB DC 13 20 runs 26.0005 Kallis J.H RCB CSK 5 20 runs 27.0016 Shoaib S.M DC CSK 18 20 runs 28.0036 Sreesanth S KXP DC 17 20 runs 29.0036 Symonds A DC KXP 9 20 runs 30.0037 Harwood S.M RR CSK 16 20 runs 31.0041 Akhil B RCB KKR 17 20 runs 32.0041 Kallis J.H RCB KKR 20 20 runs 33.0016 Gony M.S CSK DC 2 20 runs 34.0021 Mishra A DD DC 13 20 runs 35.0059 Kumar P RCB DC 15 20 runs

First thing to be noted is that these are "score advance" runs, including all extras. RP Singh and Harmeet Singh share the worst over in IPL2, although RPS was indirectly responsible with his beamer-ban from the attack, it was Harmeett who conceded most of the runs. It is another story that Harmeet had a wonderful final. Then Mashrafe's ill-fated last over to Rohit Sharma, followed by Sehwag's desperate attempt to stifle Gilchrist and Patel's forgettable attempt against Deccan.

Sreesanth conceded 20 runs in an over in each of the first four matches he played after returning. Instead of concentrating on bowling he engaged in verbal jousts with great batsmen and paid the price. Once he settled down and let the ball instead of his mouth do the talking, he improved in the next three matches.

There have been 11 20+ over occurrences in the first 6 overs, only 3 occurrences in the overs 7-14 and 21 in the 15-20 overs. All perfectly logical figures.

Surprisingly Kolkata is the best team in this regard having conceded 20 runs only thrice. Chennai and Rajasthan follow with 4 each. Punjab is the worst offender in this, having done this no fewer than 7 times.

At the other end, Deccan batsmen have done this to the bowler 9 times, followed by Chennai and surprisingly Kolkata with 7 occurrences. Four teams, Mumbai, Rajasthan, Punjab and Rajasthan have achieved only 2 times each.

3. IPL2: Analysis of 10-Over scores - Runs scored in 10 overs

SNo. I MtId Team Vs   @ 10 overs   Final    Result  %   Runs

1. 1 0017 MI KKR 111 for 0 187 for 6 Won 1.68 76 2. 2 0009 CSK DD 106 for 2 180 for 9 Lost 1.70 74 3. 1 0005 CSK RCB 106 for 0 179 for 5 Won 1.69 73 4. 2 0057 DC DD 102 for 3 154 for 4 Won 1.51 52 5. 2 0055 DD MI 93 for 1 166 for 6 Won 1.78 73 6. 1 0030 RR KXP 93 for 0 211 for 4 Won 2.27 118 7. 1 0008 DC RCB 91 for 2 184 for 6 Won 2.02 93 8. 1 0009 DD CSK 90 for 3 189 for 5 Won 2.10 99 9. 2 0034 KXP CSK 90 for 3 174 for 3 Lost 1.93 84 10. 1 0016 CSK DC 88 for 2 165 for 6 Lost 1.88 77 ... ... ... 109. 2 0053 KKR RR 38 for 5 102 for 6 Won 2.68 64 110. 2 0002 RR RCB 32 for 5 58 for 10 Lost 1.81 26 111. 1 0004 KKR DC 31 for 3 101 for 10 Lost 3.26 70

Four teams, Chennai twice included, exceeded 100 runs in the first 10 overs. The first three teams lost the way in the next 10 overs. Gilchrist's blitzkrieg was the last instance. A few teams scored below 40 runs in the first 10 overs. One of the teams, Kolkata, recovered to win the match chasing a low total.

4. IPL2: Analysis of 10-Over scores - Ratio of final score to 10-over score

SNo. I MtId Team Vs   @ 10 overs   Final    Result  %

1. 1 0004 KKR DC 31 for 3 101 for 10 Lost 3.26 2. 1 0048 KKR DC 50 for 1 160 for 5 Lost 3.20 3. 1 0027 KKR KXP 52 for 1 153 for 3 Lost 2.94 4. 1 0028 MI RCB 53 for 3 149 for 4 Lost 2.81 5. 2 0008 RCB DC 57 for 3 160 for 8 Lost 2.81 6. 2 0047 CSK MI 56 for 2 151 for 3 Won 2.70 7. 1 0021 DC DD 55 for 4 148 for 9 Lost 2.69 8. 1 0035 MI DD 43 for 4 116 for 10 Lost 2.70 9. 2 0053 KKR RR 38 for 5 102 for 6 Won 2.68 10. 1 0056 RCB DC 64 for 2 170 for 4 Won 2.66 ... ... ... 109. 2 0004 DC KKR 69 for 2 104 for 2 Won 1.51 35 110. 2 0017 KKR MI 70 for 2 95 for 10 Lost 1.36 25 111. 2 0029 DC CSK 79 for 5 100 for 10 Lost 1.27 21

Kolkata leads in the second half recoveries, almost tripling the score three times.

However it can be seen that most of the matches in which there have been very good recoveries after 10 overs have been lost. Similarly most of the matches in which teams started very well have been won, despite not maintaining the momentum. This indicates that it is very important to start well in the 10 overs. Second half recoveries seem to be like locking the doors after the horses have disappeared.

5. IPL2: Analysis of 10-Over scores - Runs added in second 10 overs

SNo. I MtId Team Vs   @ 10 overs   Final    Result Runs

1. 1 0030 RR KXP 93 for 0 211 for 4 Won 118 2. 1 0048 KKR DC 50 for 1 160 for 5 Lost 110 3. 1 0056 RCB DC 64 for 2 170 for 4 Won 106 4. 2 0041 RCB KKR 70 for 2 176 for 4 Won 106 5. 2 0051 KKR CSK 83 for 1 189 for 3 Won 106 6. 1 0051 CSK KKR 83 for 2 188 for 3 Lost 105 7. 1 0034 CSK KXP 80 for 2 185 for 3 Won 105 8. 1 0041 KKR RCB 69 for 2 173 for 4 Lost 104 9. 2 0008 RCB DC 57 for 3 160 for 8 Lost 103 10. 1 0001 MI CSK 64 for 1 165 for 7 Won 101 11. 1 0027 KKR KXP 52 for 1 153 for 3 Lost 101 ... ... ... 107. 1 0053 RR KKR 61 for 5 101 for 9 Lost 40 108. 2 0005 RCB CSK 56 for 5 87 for 10 Lost 31 109. 2 0002 RR RCB 32 for 5 58 for 10 Lost 26 110. 2 0017 KKR MI 70 for 2 95 for 10 Lost 25 111. 2 0029 DC CSK 79 for 5 100 for 10 Lost 21

Rajasthan, led by Smith, added the maximum runs, 118 to be precise, during the second half. Kolkata added 110 runs and three teams added 106 runs.

6. IPL2: Analysis of maidens bowled

No Bowler             Team  Mat    Overs   Mdns  % Mdns

1 Harris R.J DC 8 31.0 2 6.45 2 Malinga S.L MI 13 49.3 2 4.04 3 du Preez D RCB 2 7.0 1 14.29 4 Mascarenhas A.D RR 6 19.2 1 5.17 5 Lee B KXP 5 20.0 1 5.00 6 Edwards F.H DC 6 23.2 1 4.29 7 Abdulla Y.A KXP 9 28.0 1 3.57 8 Patel M.M RR 12 34.5 1 2.87 9 Morkel J.A CSK 12 40.0 1 2.50 10 Mishra A DD 11 42.0 1 2.38 11 Chawla P.P KXP 14 44.5 1 2.23 12 Kallis J.H RCB 15 46.0 1 2.17 13 Sangwan P DD 13 46.4 1 2.14 14 Kumar P RCB 13 49.4 1 2.01 15 Muralitharan M CSK 13 50.0 1 2.00 16 Pathan I.K KXP 14 50.2 1 1.99 17 Nehra A DD 13 51.0 1 1.96 18 Kumble A RCB 16 59.1 1 1.69 19 Singh R.P DC 16 59.4 1 1.68

A total of 21 maidens were bowled by 19 bowlers. Only Malinga and Harris bowled two each. Can any one forget Malinga's famous last-over double-wicket maiden against Deccan. Similarly no one can ever forget Harris' first over maiden in which he captured 2 wickets which paved the way for the semi final win over Delhi. Also his other maiden was again the first over against Bangalore in the final. Note also du Preez's bowling a maiden in the 7 overs he bowled.

7. IPL2: Highest Boundary % share in batsman innings (>66.7% in 50+ score)

No MtId  Player Name        For  Vs    Runs Balls S/R   4-6s   %

1.0057 Gilchrist A.C DC DD 85 35 242.9 70 82.4% 2.0009 Dilshan T.M DD CSK 50 27 185.2 40 80.0% 3.0043 Gilchrist A.C DC DD 64 33 193.9 50 78.1% 4.0018 Pathan Y.K RR DD 62 30 206.7 48 77.4% 5.0051 McCullum B.B KKR CSK 81 48 168.8 62 76.5% 6.0034 Hayden M.L CSK KXP 89 58 153.4 68 76.4% 7.0008 Gilchrist A.C DC RCB 71 45 157.8 54 76.1% 8.0005 Hayden M.L CSK RCB 65 35 185.7 48 73.8% 9.0030 Ojha N.V RR KXP 68 51 133.3 50 73.5% 10.0034 Katich S.M KXP CSK 50 25 200.0 36 72.0% 11.0024 Yuvraj Singh KXP RCB 50 34 147.1 36 72.0% 12.0041 Taylor R.L RCB KKR 81 33 245.5 58 71.6% 13.0022 Raina S.K CSK RR 98 55 178.2 70 71.4% 14.0034 Dhoni M.S CSK KXP 56 27 207.4 40 71.4% 15.0037 Badrinath S CSK RR 59 41 143.9 42 71.2% 16.0017 Tendulkar S.R MI KKR 68 45 151.1 48 70.6% 17.0030 Smith G.C RR KXP 77 44 175.0 54 70.1% 18.0028 Uthappa A.R RCB MI 66 42 157.1 44 66.7% 19.0009 Hayden M.L CSK DD 57 27 211.1 38 66.7%

This table analyzes the % of runs scored in boundaries in an innings. Only innings exceeding 50 are considered. Gilchrist's semi-final masterpiece leads the pack with an astounding 82.4% in boundaries. Dilshan's 80% in his knock of 50 separates another Gilchrist blitz. Yusuf Pathan and McCullum follow next with over 75%.

8. IPL2: Defending wins

No. MtId  FBt   Score       Vs   Score

1. 0030 RR 211 for 4 KXP 133 for 8 2. 0009 DD 189 for 5 CSK 180 for 9 3. 0017 MI 187 for 6 KKR 95 for 10 4. 0034 CSK 185 for 3 KXP 174 for 3 5. 0008 DC 184 for 6 RCB 160 for 8 6. 0005 CSK 179 for 5 RCB 87 for 10 7. 0029 CSK 178 for 3 DC 100 for 10 8. 0043 DD 173 for 7 DC 161 for 10 9. 0056 RCB 170 for 4 DC 158 for 6 10. 0012 DC 168 for 9 MI 156 for 7 11. 0040 DC 166 for 7 RR 113 for 10 12. 0001 MI 165 for 7 CSK 146 for 7 13. 0022 CSK 164 for 5 RR 126 for 10 14. 0026 CSK 163 for 10 DD 145 for 8 15. 0038 MI 157 for 2 RCB 141 for 7 16. 0050 DD 150 for 3 RR 136 for 9 17. 0010 RR 150 for 6 KKR 150 for 8 18. 0023 MI 148 for 6 KKR 139 for 6 19. 0045 RR 145 for 7 MI 143 for 10 20. 0024 RCB 145 for 9 KXP 137 for 7 21. 0032 DC 145 for 6 MI 126 for 8 22. 0059 DC 143 for 6 RCB 137 for 9 23. 0015 KXP 139 for 6 RR 112 for 7 24. 0049 KXP 134 for 7 DC 133 for 8 25. 0002 RCB 133 for 8 RR 58 for 10 26. 0020 KXP 119 for 8 MI 116 for 7 27. 0054 CSK 116 for 9 KXP 92 for 8

9. IPL2: Chasing wins
No. MtId  FBt   Score       Vs   Score

1. 0051 CSK 188 for 3 KKR 189 for 3 2. 0041 KKR 173 for 4 RCB 176 for 4 3. 0011 RCB 168 for 9 KXP 173 for 3 4. 0036 DC 168 for 5 KXP 169 for 7 5. 0016 CSK 165 for 6 DC 169 for 4 6. 0055 MI 165 for 8 DD 166 for 6 7. 0048 KKR 160 for 5 DC 166 for 4 8. 0006 KXP 158 for 6 KKR 79 for 1 9. 0031 KKR 154 for 3 DD 157 for 1 10. 0027 KKR 153 for 3 KXP 154 for 4 11. 0057 DD 153 for 8 DC 154 for 4 12. 0028 MI 149 for 4 RCB 150 for 1 13. 0014 RCB 149 for 7 DD 150 for 4 14. 0021 DC 148 for 9 DD 150 for 4 15. 0047 MI 147 for 5 CSK 151 for 3 16. 0058 CSK 146 for 5 RCB 149 for 4 17. 0018 DD 143 for 7 RR 147 for 5 18. 0025 DC 141 for 5 RR 142 for 7 19. 0037 RR 140 for 7 CSK 141 for 3 20. 0019 KKR 139 for 6 RCB 143 for 5 21. 0052 DD 134 for 7 RCB 135 for 3 22. 0044 CSK 129 for 10 RCB 132 for 8 23. 0039 KKR 123 for 8 DD 125 for 3 24. 0046 DD 120 for 9 KXP 123 for 4 25. 0042 KXP 119 for 9 MI 122 for 2 26. 0035 MI 116 for 10 DD 118 for 3 27. 0033 RCB 105 for 10 RR 107 for 3 28. 0003 KXP 104 for 7 DD 58 for 0 29. 0053 RR 101 for 9 KKR 102 for 6 30. 0004 KKR 101 for 10 DC 104 for 2

The above two tables are to be seen together.

21 teams exceeded 160 runs and two thirds of these totals were defended. On 7 occasions these totals were chased. This indicates that a good par score for the tournament was 160 which gave a 66.7% chance of winning. If we look at 150+ totals reached by 28 teams, 17 defended the totals while 11 chased successfully. The success % drops to 60%. So I will stick to 160, which is likely to be the par score at England during the T20 World Cup also.

8 teams which won defending their scores have dismissed the other teams, mostly for low scores. Only one team which was all out defended its total. On the other hand all 4 teams which were all out have lost their matches. Thus out of 13 all-out situations, 12 lost their matches. Most of the dismissals have been for sub-140 scores. Again perfectly understandable.

Anantha Narayanan has written for ESPNcricinfo and CastrolCricket and worked with a number of companies on their cricket performance ratings-related systems

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Posted by Jonathan on (May 31, 2009, 20:09 GMT)

Other interesting stats:

Average RPO was just 7.20 at Cape Town (lowest), compared with 7.97 at Centurion (highest). Average RPW was 18.01 at Cape Town compared with 26.56 at Centurion. This equates to an average 20-over score of 159-6 at Centurion compared to 144-8 at Cape Town. (Not enough games played at Bloemfontein and East London to draw firm conclusions.)

Surprisingly Johannesburg, anticipated to be a heavy-scoring ground, averaged 7.32 runs an over and no totals over 166.

In daytime games average RPO was 7.68, average RPW 25.59, equating to an average 20-over score of 154-6.

In evening games RPO is 7.39, RPW 21.12, equating to an average 20-over score of 148-7.

Of the 13 occasions a team was dismissed, 11 were in night games.

Teams chasing under lights averaged just 7.15 runs per over.

Teams batting first scored 0.35 more runs an over than teams batting second, 7.65 to 7.30, and averaged just under one run extra per wicket.

Posted by Aneesh on (May 29, 2009, 18:49 GMT)

Hi Ananth, You posted the standard deviation for runs scored in a single over. It might be helpful to also compute the standard deviation for the average runs per over (standard error of the mean). This will be much smaller (about 0.4), and more useful for comparison.

Here is another possible factor that might explain lower 19th over numbers. The very strong teams who score very fast will complete the chase before the 19th over itself. Your data show significantly less balls faced in the 19th over. So only the weaker teams were still batting in the 19th over, and hence the rate is lower. In the 20th over, the teams just start swinging (nearly twice as many wickets fell in the 20th vs the 19th over), so the scoring rate rises.

I also think it's interesting to look at the 1st and 2nd innings separately. I examined this data on my blog, and saw some differences in the run-scoring patterns between the two innings.

http://blog.againstthespin.com/2009/05/28/ipl-scoring-patterns/

[[ Aneesh For the T20 analysis I have already separated the data between the two innings and have seen a different run-scoring pattern emerging. This article is expected to come out by mid-next week just before the T20 World Cup. Re SD I have mailed you separately eliciting some clarification. Ananth: ]]

Posted by ramlal on (May 29, 2009, 13:20 GMT)

Hi Ananth, This is good analysis as usual. I think it would also be interesting to know how many 'dot'balls did a batsman play ( total / per match), something similar to seeing how many maidens did a bowler bowl.

Posted by Arjun N on (May 29, 2009, 7:28 GMT)

a) [[ No it is not a mistake. KKR, the best team in this regard, conceded only 3 20+ run overs while others conceded MORE number of times and KXP falls into this group. Ananth: ]] Did you forget about MI ?

b) Is it possible to have some data on bowlers and batsmen who played in the particular over and to know if the lived up to their strike rate/average ? It may be that tailenders faced most of the 19th over and saved their wicket for 20th over or also one top order player saved his wicket for the 20th over there by a considerable dip in 19th over score.

Posted by MP on (May 29, 2009, 6:25 GMT)

The drop in scoring in the 19th over could be because in some instances the team has lost many wickets and so the remaining batsmen are bowlers who are not swinging wildly as the opportunity cost of getting all out is higher (as you miss the opportunity to score off the remaining 6-11 balls) than if you were in the final over (when the opportunity cost falls).

Posted by Hiren on (May 29, 2009, 4:56 GMT)

Great Analysis! While its great that you have shared the stats directly with us and given how spoilt we are with analysis output, would it not be greater if you could chart out some of the trends? E.g. the dip in 19th over, numbers may indicate different insights, but when I put the RR data on a line graph, I had no doubt that the dip is "significant" enough. Secondly, while there could be various cuts you can take of the data, maybe one could also look at Share of 4's & 6's in the aggregate score (or the entire split from dots to 6's) of the leading 20-30 batsmen (by score)

Thanx!

Posted by R. Simha on (May 28, 2009, 22:06 GMT)

Any stats to examine how teams changed their game as the tournament progressed? Who got more comforable, who got cautious, who got desperate... and of course, what does a steady dose of T20 do to a player?

Posted by Pelham Barton on (May 28, 2009, 20:29 GMT)

The simplest explanation for the dip in the run rate in the 19th over is random variation. I do not know in what sense you are using the word "significant", but the difference between 18th and 19th over run-rates is not statistically significant at the 5 percent level, which is usually taken as the least demanding criterion for significance. The interesting comparison would be not to separate the two innings, but to see if the same thing happened last year. Similarly the difference between 9th and 10th over scoring rates is not statistically significant. It may be that the dip there is genuine, and you have a plausible reason for it, but this year's figures are not strong enough to settle the issue with any certainty. Overall your figures show a strong pattern of varying run rate through an innings, but you should not try to read too much into every variation before asking how much things could be expected to vary as a result of chance alone. [[ Pelham I still think 9.60 (18), 8.98 (19), 10.01 (20) presents an unexpected dip in an over when teams would be expected to go hammer and tongs. The dip is of the order of 7% and then the increase is of the order of 13%. It is possible it falls into the random variations you have suggested. It is also possible that captains tend to bowl their best bowler in the 19th bowler instead of holding them back to the 20th, as a few readers have pointed out. However I take your point on taking one year's figures. Let us see what happens when I do the T20 Intl analysis. Adter all there are 89 matches there spread over 5 years and a few continents. Ananth: ]]

Posted by Nifty on (May 28, 2009, 19:04 GMT)

A small mistake: Sreesanth conceded 20 runs in an over in each of the first four matches he played after returning. Surprisingly Kolkatta is the best team in this regard having conceded 20 runs only thrice. If someone has already pointed this out, my apologies - please disregard. [[ No it is not a mistake. KKR, the best team in this regard, conceded only 3 20+ run overs while others conceded MORE number of times and KXP falls into this group. Ananth: ]]

Posted by ramesh on (May 28, 2009, 17:53 GMT)

great work!! how about a comparison with IPL 1, especially table 1,3 and 5 .. while IPL 1 was generally higher scoring, it would be interesting to see the trend in avg. score and wickets and the impact of the 'strategy' break would be clearer .. [[ Ramesh As of now I do not have IPL1 data and am not sure whether I will do that work. However what you say is possible with future tournaments such as T20 WC, T20 Intls itself, Champion's League, IPL3 etc. Ananth: ]]

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Anantha Narayanan
Anantha spent the first half of his four-decade working career with corporates like IBM, Shaw Wallace, NCR, Sime Darby and the Spinneys group in IT-related positions. In the second half, he has worked on cricket simulation, ratings, data mining, analysis and writing, amongst other things. He was the creator of the Wisden 100 lists, released in 2001. He has written for ESPNcricinfo and CastrolCricket, and worked extensively with Maruti Motors, Idea Cellular and Castrol on their performance ratings-related systems. He is an armchair connoisseur of most sports. His other passion is tennis, and he thinks Roger Federer is the greatest sportsman to have walked on earth.

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