The groupings for the crucial ICC World Cup qualifiers in South Africa next April are likely to pit Scotland against Ireland, with Kenya in the same group as Netherlands, Bermuda and the fast-improving UAE. The two six-team groups are based on standings in the ICC ODI rankings.

Although an ICC spokesman told Cricinfo that no official announcement could be made until after the December 31 cut-off date - unless any of the Associates arrange games in the next three weeks, which is highly unlikely - then nothing will change.

Group A features Scotland, Ireland, Canada, Oman, Namibia and the runner-up in the next month's ICC World Cricket League Division 3 event in Argentina. Group B has Kenya, Netherlands, Bermuda, UAE, Denmark and the WCL Division 3 winners.

It is the most important Associate tournament to date. The top four countries will qualify for the 2011 World Cup, and they will also pick up additional funding which could run into millions of dollars. The top six will be awarded full ODI status, and the top eight will compete in the next Intercontinental Cup.

The rewards are considerable, but changes in the rules means that with fewer places available for Associates in 2011 than there were in 2007, at least two current top-six sides will miss out.

Kenya are likely to be favourites, given the fact they are a fully professional outfit and are likely to be based in South Africa for some time before the tournament. But they have had a poor 2008, so much so that Cricket Kenya has launched a major inquiry into the state of the national team. Scotland and Ireland, who both harbour ambitions to go at least semi-professional, are also likely to he there or thereabouts.

Beneath them, the situation gets interesting. Netherlands are going through a transition, Bermuda, having endured a truly wretched three years, are showing signs of improvement, while UAE and Namibia have done enough to suggest they will be pressing hard.

The WCL Division 3 competition could produce a cricketing fairytale if Afghanistan, who started the qualifying process in Division 5, win through.

Group A Ireland, Scotland, Canada, Oman, Namibia, WCL Div 3 runner-up.

Group B Kenya, Netherlands, Bermuda, UAE, Denmark, WCL Div 3 winner.

WCL Division 3 Afghanistan, Argentina, Cayman Islands, Hong Kong, Papua New Guinea, Uganda.