Home advantage favours Mumbai, Chennai

In a format that is quite different from previous seasons, Bangalore and Chennai, by finishing in the top two positions, have not only ensured that they qualify for the Champions League, but have also given themselves a lifeline in case of a loss in the first qualifier. Mumbai and Kolkata are not quite as lucky, though. While a loss in the eliminator game between these two teams means a certain exit, the winner also has to play an extra game before making the final. Bangalore and Mumbai carry momentum and confidence going into these crucial clashes as they upstaged the very same opponents in the last two group matches played. Mumbai, despite a heavy loss to Rajasthan recently, have a very good home record and will start favourites against Kolkata, who, by failing to win against Mumbai, squandered an excellent chance to go second. Even if Chennai don't put it past Bangalore, their exceptional home record will make them favourites in the second qualifier which is to be played in Chennai.

Bangalore's form this season experienced a renaissance after Chris Gayle arrived. With a solitary win and three consecutive losses at that stage, they went on to win eight and lost just one of the last nine games. Gayle, who has single-handedly transformed the fate of Bangalore with his attacking batting, has been remarkably consistent. In nine innings, he has fallen for less than 20 only once, and has scored two centuries and two fifties. In the meanwhile, he has struck 38 sixes, which is an IPL record for a single season. This has ensured that Bangalore's run-rate is 8.38, which is well above that of the other three teams. Chennai and Mumbai have adopted a more conservative approach at the start of the innings. They have scored at just over six runs per over and accelerated towards the end. On the bowling front, Chennai and Mumbai have done well, with lower averages and economy rates than Bangalore. Kolkata, who have a low scoring rate, have done quite well with the ball, averaging just over 23 with the lowest economy rate among the four teams, 7.23.

Bangalore and Chennai, who face off in the first qualifier, have had diametrically opposite success strategies. While Bangalore have won seven and lost just three of the games where they have chased, Chennai have a very similar record when they bat first. However, Bangalore and Chennai have a 2-1 record when they have batted first and chased respectively. Mumbai also have a very good record when they have batted first and their batting stats are significantly better in the first innings when compared to chases. They, along with Chennai, have been highly impressive at defending 150-plus scores.

Gayle's explosive starts have meant that Bangalore have scored at a rapid rate in the first six overs. Chennai and Mumbai have been content to play sedately at the start and accelerate later on. Bangalore have an extraordinarily high boundary percentage (71%) which makes them an extremely dangerous side to face in the play-offs. Chennai and Bangalore have been the fastest-scoring teams in the end overs with run-rates of over ten. On the bowling front, Mumbai and Kolkata have been highly economical, conceding less than seven runs per over in the first six overs. Lasith Malinga's accuracy with his yorkers have been responsible for Mumbai's low economy rate in the final overs.

Bangalore's top-order batsmen have been quite successful all through the season. Both Gayle and Kohli have scored over 400 runs and have been involved in one century stand and four fifty partnerships. Mumbai and Chennai have not had strong starts but have had a number of good contributions from the middle-order batsmen. Ambati Rayudu and Sachin Tendulkar have been involved in two century stands for Mumbai. S Badrinath, who has scored five fifties, and MS Dhoni have been crucial to Chennai's cause in the middle and end overs. Kolkata have also struggled at the start of the innings, but have done much better later on.

Malinga and Munaf Patel, who have 27 and 17 wickets respectively, are among the top five wicket-takers in IPL 2011, giving Mumbai a definite edge over Kolkata. Chennai also have a very consistent attack with R Ashwin, Doug Bollinger and Albie Morkel among the wickets. For Kolkata and Bangalore, Iqbal Abdulla and S Aravind have been the most successful wicket-takers.

Chennai, the venue for the second qualifier and the final, has heavily favoured teams batting first. Mumbai, where the first qualifier and eliminator games will be played, has been much more even in terms of results, with teams batting first winning four of seven games. Pace bowlers have been dominant in Mumbai while spinners have been far more successful in games played in Chennai. Despite having lost the game they played in Mumbai, Chennai have better familiarity with the conditions when comapred to Bangalore, who have not played a game there. Kolkata, who did not play in Mumbai earlier in the season, are also at a disadvantage against Mumbai, who are playing at home.