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ESPNcricinfo's stats editor S Rajesh looks at the stories behind the stats

The Friday Column

The Cairns story in numbers, and England's saviour

Perhaps numbers never do reveal the full story, but they tell a large part of it

S Rajesh

June 18, 2004

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Perhaps numbers never do reveal the full story, but they tell a large part of it. Every Friday, The Numbers Game will take a look at statistics from the present and the past, busting myths and revealing hidden truths:

Standing tall at the finish
In the end, it wasn't quite the dream finale that Chris Cairns and thousands of his fans would have hoped for: his team lost the game, and the defensive plod which turned out to be his last attempted stroke was completely incongruous with Cairns's approach to batting. However, Cairns's lionhearted performance with the ball ensured that he was still the dominant figure of the match for New Zealand. Unlike so many of his heroic efforts, though, this didn't turn out to be a matchwinning one.

A batsman scoring a century in his last Test isn't all that rare - indeed, 29 of them have performed this feat (excluding players who haven't retired yet), with Nasser Hussain being the newest member of the club - but it's far more unusual for a bowler to finish with a flourish: only seven bowlers have taken a ten-for in their final Test (eight, if one includes Andy Caddick, who took 10 for 215 against Australia at Sydney in 2002-03, and, though not yet retired, hasn't played a Test since). Cairns's 9 for 187 at Trent Bridge puts him in tenth position in the all-time list of best bowling figures in a farewell Test. Also, notably, no bowler has had such an impact in his last Test since Mike Procter in 1969-70 against Australia.

Versus Match figures Venue & yr
Sydney Barnes (Eng) South Africa 14 for 144 Durban, 1913-14
Ferris (Aus/Eng) South Africa 13 for 91 Cape Town, 1891-92
Grimmett South Africa 13 for 173 Durban, 1935-36
Marriott (Eng) West Indies 11 for 96 The Oval, 1933
Blythe (Eng) South Africa 10 for 104 Cape Town, 1909-10
Hordern (Aus) England 10 for 161 Sydney, 1911-12
Tom Richardson (Eng) Australia 10 for 204 Sydney, 1897-98
Bissett (SA) England 9 for 90 Durban, 1927-28
Procter (SA) Australia 9 for 103 Port Elizabeth, 1969-70
Chris Cairns (NZ) England 9 for 187 Trent Bridge, 2004
(table excludes Caddick and Pedro Collins, who took 9 for 117 in his last Test, against Bangladesh, earlier this year)

Numbers can never do justice to his talent, but they do provide a perspective of how Cairns's career developed, and why the tag of late bloomer is absolutely apt for him. As the table below shows, Cairns regularly underperformed in the first two-thirds of his Test career - a batting average of 27 and a bowling average of 31 suggested a reasonably good allrounder, nothing more. Put those numbers through the litmus test for an allrounder - the batting average being higher than the bowling average - and Cairns fails to make the cut.

However, the stats for the last one-third of his career show that Cairns's contribution with both bat and ball finally did some semblance of justice to his phenomenal talents. His batting average, especially, showed marked improvement, from a pedestrian 27 to 45, an average that top-order batsmen would be proud of. There were shades of another great allrounder there - Imran Khan weighed in more with the bat once he realised that he wasn't not quite the potent force he once were with the ball.

Except, in Chris Cairns's case, his potency with the ball didn't dimish. On the other hand, as his body became increasingly crocked with injuries, he became increasingly lethal with the ball as well. His last 22 Tests fetched him 88 wickets at less than 27 apiece, at a fantastic strike rate of a wicket every 48 balls - that's nearly as good as Malcolm Marshall, and better than Richard Hadlee and Glenn McGrath.

Runs Ave Wickets Ave
First 40 Tests 1825 27.65 130 31.31
Last 22 Tests 1495 45.30 88 26.58
Career 3320 33.53 218 29.40

And, of course, there's the small matter of all those matches he missed due to various injuries - New Zealand played 119 Tests since Cairns's debut, of which he didn't play in 57. Extrapolate his rate of scoring runs and taking wickets, and Cairns would have ended with career stats of 6372 runs and 418 wickets, becoming the only man to achieve the 6000-run and 400-wicket double.

England's saviour rises to the occasion ... again
England may have lost one crisis-man with the retirement of Nasser Hussain, but Graham Thorpe showed - yet again - that as long as he is around, England need not worry about closing out wins. In the 90 Tests that Thorpe has played, he has been on the winning end 31 times, and in those games he's contributed eight hundreds and 21 fifties. The table below shows just how crucial Thorpe has been to his team's victories - among all of England's batsmen, only four average more than him in winning causes (min qual: 1000 runs in matches won).

Tests Runs Ave 100s
Hammond 29 2584 69.83 10
Hobbs 28 2720 68.00 7
Hutton 27 2678 65.31 8
Barrington 31 2319 64.41 8
Thorpe 31 2576 64.40 8

Thorpe's average in victories is imposing enough, but he is even better at guiding England home in fourth-innings run-chases. In 19 such Tests (when England have won chasing a fourth-innings target), Thorpe has been there at the end 11 times, with five centuries and seven half-centuries at an average of 71.90.

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S Rajesh Stats editor Every week the Numbers Game takes a look at the story behind the stats, with an original slant on facts and figures. The column is edited by S Rajesh, ESPNcricinfo's stats editor in Bangalore. He did an MBA in marketing, and then worked for a year in advertising, before deciding to chuck it in favour of a job which would combine the pleasures of watching cricket and writing about it. The intense office cricket matches were an added bonus.
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Numbers Game : Last week's column - Analysing Slater
Players/Officials: Chris Cairns | Graham Thorpe
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