The more things change

When Ricky Ponting retires there's a prestigious job waiting for him at Buckingham Palace: he's very good at presiding over the changing of the guard.

Following Steve Waugh's retirement it was expected Ponting would have a difficult task emulating his predecessor's winning record as Australian captain. Ponting promptly won all three Tests in Sri Lanka to clinch the series - a feat Waugh had been unable to achieve. Then Ponting travelled to India for a series Waugh dubbed the "last frontier" because of how the win he craved there had eluded him. No such problems for Ponting, who with some help from stand-in skipper Adam Gilchrist, became the first Australian captain since Bill Lawry in 1969-70 to win a series in India.

Ponting's next big challenge came when the highly successful bowling duo of Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath retired, along with batsmen Damien Martyn and Justin Langer. A new era dawned for Australian cricket, but again it was no problem for Ponting. He led Australia to successive comprehensive wins over Sri Lanka, a team that had seriously challenged his side when it contained the bulk of the recently retired stars.

There's no doubt the latest changing of the guard is Ponting's more difficult assignment. Bowlers win matches and the loss of two champions almost guarantees a reduction in the rate of victories even if the losses don't mount alarmingly. So when are Australia's victories likely to become less prevalent?

In theory the arrival of a strong batting side like India should signal imminent danger for Ponting's winning ratio. However, Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid, Sourav Ganguly and VVS Laxman are fading stars rather than rising ones and Ponting has the ideal weapon to challenge slowing reflexes - pace.

Brett Lee has adequately filled the large boots of McGrath as the leader of the attack. He is bowling with greater accuracy and relying on more good-length deliveries, with the occasional well-directed bouncer. This is a far cry from the tearaway who offered more giveaways than a discount house by insisting on bowling either full or short, and who wasted energy in delivering wayward bouncers.

Lee's next point-to-prove is learning to cope when a batsman goes on the attack. That is when his runs-per-over figure used to rise like Zimbabwe's inflation. If Virender Sehwag opens for India and has anything like the success he enjoyed last time in Australia, this will be Lee's next big challenge.

If the Indian batsmen are anywhere near their best, it will also indicate the progress made by the talented young speedster Mitchell Johnson. He has genuine pace and is awkward for right-hand batsmen with his inswing and typical left-arm, angled delivery. However, he doesn't have much experience outside the one-day game, and bowling for long spells on good pitches without a lot of success can test the mettle of any bowler.

Apart from Lee, all the main Australian bowlers averaged more than 30 runs per wicket against a Sri Lankan batting line-up that, apart from Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene, wasn't able to dominate. If the Indian batsmen can combat Lee, then the Australian attack is vulnerable.

Warne's true value to Australia will only be recognised in benign conditions: no spinner can match his guile when the pitch is heavily in favour of batsmen. Stuart MacGill couldn't do it at his peak and his lacklustre form at the Bellerive Oval suggests his creaking body has eroded his desire, as well as his skills. If MacGill's injury doesn't repair quickly and he decides to retire, then Australia has a problem.

Brad Hogg's reputation is built on one-day success rather than any outstanding performances in longer games. There's no doubt Hogg is an improved bowler since he last played Test cricket but he still needs to convince himself and those around him and if the Indian batsmen don't give him the opportunity to settle quickly, doubts will creep into his mind.

Australia is strong in pace bowling back-up but not in spin bowling reserves, so they desperately need MacGill to carry the load until the new breed of tweakers mature. If Ponting can oversee a smooth changing of the guard from Warne to MacGill to the next generation spinner, his excellent win ratio won't take too much of a hit. Trouble is, if he achieves that monumentally difficult task then he'll be over-qualified for Buckingham Palace.