Group A heads for tight finish

Mumbai are at the head of the table, but five other teams, separated by just three points, have a chance of making the quarter-finals.

Had Delhi made another 23 runs at the Roshanara Club, they would have already qualified for the knockout stage. Their shock defeat has, instead, opened up the group, and left them needing to beat defending champions Mumbai outright, at the same venue. The seaming surface won't make their task any easier against an attack that includes Ajit Agarkar and Aavishkar Salvi.

A first-innings lead will leave them hoping that at least one of two other matches - Tamil Nadu v Gujarat and Bengal v Railways - ends in a stalemate. If only the first game is drawn, they will not want TN to take the first-innings lead.

Second-placed TN will have an eye on the Chennai weather, which has played havoc with their home-heavy schedule. They have played five of their six games so far in Chennai, and three of those have been hampered by rain. The first innings could not be completed on two occasions, and TN will hope the clouds stay away against Gujarat.

An outright win will see them through, while the first-innings lead will put them in a comfortable position, unless Delhi beat Mumbai and Bengal or Railways get a bonus-point victory.

They need to defeat TN. The first-innings lead would suffice if Bengal and Railways play out a draw and Mumbai at least take the lead against Delhi.

A win against Railways will take Bengal to 17 points, after which they will hope that one of the TN-Gujarat and Mumbai-Delhi games ends in a stalemate. If the former is drawn and Delhi win, they would want Gujarat to take the lead. However, if both those games have results, they would want Delhi to lose.

Having brought themselves into contention with the thrilling win over Delhi, Railways would have to beat Bengal and then hope for the same scenarios to unfold as in the case of Bengal above.

In an extremely unlikely combination of events, Assam could sneak through if they win with a bonus point against Saurashtra, Delhi lose to Mumbai, TN beat Gujarat and Bengal and Railways are unable to complete the first innings.

Saurashtra are out of contention and need to win against Assam to avoid relegation.

The race is narrower in Group B, with Baroda, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana fighting it out for two spots. Karnataka have already joined Mumbai in the quarterfinals.

A first-innings lead over Himachal Pradesh should do for Baroda, except if UP beat Karnataka, and Haryana thrash Orissa by a bonus point. A one-point return or a loss could still see them through, if UP or Haryana stutter as well.

The lead alone will not do for UP if there is a three-way tie on 17 points between them, Baroda and Haryana. In that case, the latter two will proceed on account of more outright wins. If Haryana are unable to win against Orissa, UP could be through even if they concede the lead to Karnataka, for they have a better runs-to-wickets quotient at the moment. If UP lose, they would hope Orissa at least take the lead over Haryana.

They will have to at least take the lead against Orissa, and then hope that one of Baroda and UP lose. A win would put them in a better position, and they would then want UP to be limited to the first-innings lead against Karnataka. That would leave UP and Haryana tied on 17 points; the latter could then progress with more outright victories.

Punjab, Orissa and Himachal Pradesh are looking to avoid demotion to the Plate League. Punjab's fate is out of their hands as they have played all their games.