First-Test blues for India

The curse of the first Test has struck again for India in an overseas game. The innings defeat in Centurion means India must now win at least one of the next two matches to return home without a series defeat. Of course, if their aim is more humble - to retain their No.1 ranking - then all they need to do is draw one of those games, but a team which has so many stalwarts will surely have greater aspirations. The Centurion defeat, though, has just made the task harder for the visitors, and it opens up, yet again, India's tendency to begin poorly on tours.

It's been a recurring theme of several of India's overseas campaigns - lose the first Test, and then try and make up the damage through the remainder of the series. In their last five tours to one of the top eight countries (including the current tour), India have lost the series opener four times - against Sri Lanka in 2008 and 2010, and against Australia in 2007. The only glorious exception was the tour to New Zealand, where India won the first Test, and then went on to draw the next two to win the series. They'd won the first Test on their previous tour to South Africa as well, in 2006-07, but on that tour India slipped in the next two matches, losing both of them and the series.

Since the beginning of 2000, India have played 16 overseas series (excluding the ones in Zimbabwe and Bangladesh). They've lost the first Test eight times and won only thrice. There was a period between 2003 and 2007 when India seemed to have rid themselves of this bad habit, not losing the first game for six series in a row (in Australia, twice in Pakistan, in West Indies, England and South Africa), but over the last three years the habit has crept in again.

As the table below indicates, India's results tend to go up after the first Test - they've won less than 19% of the first games, but in subsequent matches they've won ten out of 35 - a percentage of almost 29. Similarly, the loss percentage comes down from 50 in first Tests to 34 in subsequent games.

On the seven previous occasions when India have lost the first Test of an away series since 2000, only twice have they come back to level the series - in England in 2002 and in Sri Lanka earlier this year.

India, in first Tests and other Tests, overseas since 2000

	Matches	Won	Lost	Drawn
First Tests	16	3	8	5
Other Tests	35	10	12	13

Excludes matches in Zimbabwe and Bangladesh

After the match, MS Dhoni seemed to indicate that India tend to start a series poorly even at home, but recent numbers don't bear that out. In 18 home series since 2000 (excluding a couple against Zimbabwe), India have lost the first match only four times, of which two were before 2002. They've won five and drawn nine.

India's batting failure in the first innings ultimately cost them the Test, so here's a look at how India's top order has fared in first Tests overseas since 2000 (in countries excluding Bangladesh and Zimbabwe). Virender Sehwag failed in the first innings in Centurion, but his overall first-Test average is splendid - 59.42, with four centuries in 12 Tests, including two in excess of 250. Sachin Tendulkar is equally impressive, with a first-Test average of almost 58, and four centuries, in Bloemfontein, Multan, Hamilton and Centurion.

The others, though, have clearly underperformed. Rahul Dravid averages ten below his overall average in these countries during this period, but his recent starts to series have been even more dismal: in the last four years he averages only 21.69 in first Tests, with one half-century in 14 innings. Gautam Gambhir averages less than 40 in the first Tests but more than 70 thereafter, while the situation is somewhat similar for VVS Laxman: an average of 37.86 in the first Tests, which goes up to 56.30 in the second, and 50.57 in the third. Going by these numbers, South Africa should be prepared to be out in the field for much longer in the next couple of matches.

Indian batsmen in first Tests of overseas series since 2000*

Batsman	First Tests	Runs	Average	100s/ 50s	Overall away ave**
Virender Sehwag	12	1248	59.42	4/ 2	51.26
Sachin Tendulkar	14	1156	57.80	4/ 4	51.72
Rahul Dravid	16	993	41.37	2/ 5	51.10
Gautam Gambhir	4	271	38.71	0/ 2	56.13
VVS Laxman	15	871	37.86	0/ 6	49.88

* Excludes matches in Bangladesh and Zimbabwe
** In countries excluding Bangladesh and Zimbabwe