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Luck Index: De Villiers' reprieve proves costly

A number of lucky breaks helped Royal Challengers Bangalore overturn a six-match losing streak in IPL 2019. Here's a comprehensive look:

Kings XI Punjab were poor in the field. They misfielded and conceded overthrows in plenty. This cost them 16 runs, according to Luck Index. In a T20 game, this is a massive difference, particularly in close finishes.

Then, they missed running out AB de Villiers in the 12th over, when the required rate had touched 8.50 per over in their chase of 174. From there on, he made 31 more off 18 balls and remained unbeaten to seal the chase. According to Luck Index, the remaining batsman may have managed only 21 off the last 18. Therefore, the missed run out helped Royal Challengers pocket 10 extra runs.

Later in the piece, with pressure mounting on Marcus Stoinis. M Ashwin put down a catch in the 18th over at deep midwicket. Stoinis scored 13 off six balls after the drop. This reprieve helped Royal Challengers gain six runs. Overall, Stoinis made 28 not out. Luck Index projects the batsmen to come would've made just 22.

It wasn't just Royal Challengers who enjoyed slices of luck. Early in the game, Kings XI received a boost when an lbw appeal off Chris Gayle wasn't reviewed. The Jamaican hadn't opened his account. Replays showed he would've been out had the decision gone upstairs. Gayle went on to make 99. Had Gayle been out on nought, it's estimated the other batsmen would've scored 24 fewer than Gayle.

It's not as if Royal Challengers didn't drop catches or concede runs through misfields. It's just that they made fewer errors than Kings XI on the night.

Luck Index is a part of Superstats, a new set of metrics by ESPNcricinfo to tell more enriching and insightful numbers-based stories. To know more about Superstats, click here.