Asia Cup 2014

Pakistan nearly through, India nearly out

What the teams need to do to reach the final of the Asia Cup

Shiva Jayaraman

March 3, 2014

Comments: 68 | Text size: A | A

Shahid Afridi is mobbed by his team-mates, India v Pakistan, Asia Cup, Mirpur, March 2, 2014
Pakistan will most likely meet Sri Lanka in the Asia Cup final. © AFP
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Series/Tournaments: Asia Cup

With Sri Lanka having qualified for the Asia Cup finals with their win against Afghanistan, there is only one place left for the other teams to vie for. Pakistan, with two wins under their belt and a game left, are the most likely team to face Sri Lanka in the finals on Saturday. A win for Pakistan against Bangladesh will put all doubts to rest. Pakistan will go through and the others will be out of the Asia Cup. But should they lose to Bangladesh in their next match, all the other teams will also be in with a chance - however remote - for a place in the finals. The following is what the teams need to do, and also what they need others to do for them, to find a place in the final.

Pakistan

For them the equation is simple yet: beat Bangladesh and get to the finals with three wins.

Pakistan can only be eliminated under the following scenarios, which on Bangladesh's current form look highly unlikely - (i) Bangladesh win both their remaining matches with bonus points and with ten points they go through to the final. (ii) Bangladesh win both their matches and get one bonus point against either of the teams. Then it will be a two-way tie on points with Pakistan, in which case Pakistan will be relegated.

The rules of the tournament stipulate that a tie on points between two or more teams will be decided, first on the head-to-head record in the tournament, and then, if required, on the bonus points earned and then, if required, on NRR. So Pakistan will not make it to the final if it is a two-way tie between them and Bangladesh, irrespective of their NRRs.

However, if India or Afghanistan also get a bonus point, then there will be a three-way tie between Pakistan, Bangladesh and India/Afghanistan, necessitating a qualification based on the highest NRR.

Bangladesh

They still have two matches left and like Pakistan, they can also qualify for the finals without depending on other results. For that though, they will have to win both their remaining games - against Pakistan and Sri Lanka - with bonus points.

In the event that they win both their games but manage only one bonus point, they will go to the finals directly if no team gets a bonus point in the India-Afghanistan game. But in case one of the two does manage a bonus point, there will be a three-way tie, which then will be decided on NRRs. In a three-way tie situation though, it will help both Bangladesh and India if Bangladesh earn their bonus point against Pakistan.

It will be an outright elimination for Bangladesh if they don't win against Pakistan or if they don't manage at least two wins and one bonus point.

India

The only chance of India qualifying is when there's a three-way tie with Pakistan and Bangladesh on points, head-to-head and bonus point. Bangladesh winning against Pakistan and losing against Sri Lanka will also not help them since it will be a two-way tie between India and Pakistan. India, having lost to Pakistan in the league match, will be relegated.

Afghanistan

Their qualifications scenarios mirror India's. They will have to beat India with a bonus point and hope for a three-way tie with Bangladesh and Pakistan. Their qualification is very unlikely though, given their NRR has taken a beating after heavy losses to Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Finally, here's a rough idea of how the margins of these results will affect the net run rates of the teams, for scores around 250. If Pakistan lose to Bangladesh by no more than a margin of 18 balls to spare or 16 runs, then their NRR will be higher than India's even if India were to beat Afghanistan by the minimum margin required to earn a bonus point. However, If India manage a bigger win, this will not be enough. If Bangladesh manage to beat Pakistan with a bonus point, Pakistan's NRR would be low enough to give Bangladesh and India a realistic chance of qualifying in case of a three-way tie.

Shiva Jayaraman is a sub-editor (stats) at ESPNcricinfo.com

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Posted by   on (March 6, 2014, 7:50 GMT)

why indians support indian team in england inspite of being UK NATIONAL

Posted by   on (March 6, 2014, 7:49 GMT)

india u will see more embarrasment in future due to narrow mind

Posted by wapuser on (March 5, 2014, 13:53 GMT)

Kohli was so tens when he coming on crease..... Welldone Greens

Posted by   on (March 4, 2014, 17:39 GMT)

Once again He proved Himself as "Match Winner Player "

"Shahid Afridi is Man of the Match "

i am very Thankful To Almighty Allah , without His Help nothing is possible ,,,,I tried my level best to perform well. Misbah has great support and it's my type of situation and I had the licence. I was confident that 10, 10.5 an over was possibly so I took a chance. I have to congratulate Bangladesh for the score they put up. We need to do better with the ball. [Who is your batting coach] None, no one. Moin bhai n Zahir supports me as well . I knew if I slog I will hit it because it was a very good pitch" My All Time Favorite Boom Boom

Posted by   on (March 4, 2014, 17:34 GMT)

ya india is out of tournament .and we learnt a lesson try to have atleast 2 senior players om team like viru ,gaut and bhaji and zaheer this will help india . from here the youngsters have to learn .....never mine will win wt20 2014. all the best my team india......

Posted by CricketMaan on (March 4, 2014, 15:09 GMT)

With India out of the tourney, will they dare to test Ishwar Pandey and rest Shami? I doubt. And how about asking Rahane to open while Rohit down the order. I doubt. Oh Pujara can also open and drop Rohit. I doubt.

Posted by Nampally on (March 4, 2014, 14:28 GMT)

Whilst Afghanistan & BD are playing with lots of guts & determination, the reverse seems to be the case with India. Being the World ODI champions they need to have won the Asia Cup authoritatively. Instead they are contend with defeats justifying them in terms of close games. When India is ODI world champion, they need to play their best players both in batting & bowling. Unless they learn to do so, they will be out of WC 2015 in a Jiffy! There is no plan or intensity in preparation for WC 2015. The same old Losing Coach Fletcher & his lack lustre coaching team. Kirsten led India to the top of the World whilst Fletcher brought India to the bottom losing to every team + teaching players to be content with losses! The exit from the Asia Cup is a sad tale of missed chances via "Benching" its Best players. Absence of targeted plan of player development + Benching of its best players has hurt India so badly that they are at the BOTTOM. India cannot rise to the TOP with such Politiking!

Posted by sandy_san on (March 4, 2014, 12:20 GMT)

It is better India get out of the tournament, instead of working on this thinny calculations to finals and get another beating from SL because of poor pace bowling !! India must start searching for fast bowlers looking into WC 2015.

Posted by   on (March 4, 2014, 11:56 GMT)

It is very nice to see Indian fans appreciating Pakistan team. The Saturday match was the replay of famous match "Miandad Six on the last ball". I am honoured to watch that match live in 1986 and now in 2014. History repeats itself. Indians have big hearts to enjoy both matches.

Posted by XiTiZ_P on (March 4, 2014, 11:51 GMT)

I really can not re-call a 3+ team tournament in last 15-18 years (except the 2011 wc) where India has not come to depending on the calculations (other results and NRR)

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Shiva Jayaraman is a sub-editor (stats) at ESPNcricinfo.com
Tournament Results
Pakistan v Sri Lanka at Dhaka - Mar 8, 2014
Sri Lanka won by 5 wickets (with 22 balls remaining)
Bangladesh v Sri Lanka at Dhaka - Mar 6, 2014
Sri Lanka won by 3 wickets (with 6 balls remaining)
Afghanistan v India at Dhaka - Mar 5, 2014
India won by 8 wickets (with 106 balls remaining)
Bangladesh v Pakistan at Dhaka - Mar 4, 2014
Pakistan won by 3 wickets (with 1 ball remaining)
Afghanistan v Sri Lanka at Dhaka - Mar 3, 2014
Sri Lanka won by 129 runs
More results »
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News | Features Last 3 days