Tasmania 333 (Paine 87, Wade 57 Bird 54*) and 191 (Paine 40*, Lyon 4-48) New South Wales 32 (Bird 7-18) trail by 492 runs
On an extraordinary second day in Hobart, defending Sheffield Shield champions New South Wales were demolished for 32 - their lowest first-class total and the fourth-lowest of all-time in the Shield - as Jackson Bird bagged a career-best 7 for 18.
Only captain Peter Nevill reached double figures, unbeaten on 10, when last-man Harry Conway edged Sam Rainbird to Tim Paine with the injured Sean Abbott, who split the webbing in his right hand yesterday, unable to bat. Tasmania opted not to enforce the follow-on and were bowled out on the stroke of stumps to end a day where 22 wickets fell.
"It was one of those days, felt like the ball was coming out nicely from ball one," Bird said. "It was nipping just enough and swinging just enough and everything was nicked or lbw. It was a great bowling display from the group, especially Peter Siddle at the other end, he could have been in my position quite easily the way he bowled.
"I felt like today was just around the corner, felt like that for the last 12 months, haven't really got a big bag of wickets like that for a while but feel like I've been bowling well. Didn't think it was going to be as good as that was."
New South Wales lost two wickets in their first over - Daniel Hughes and Daniel Solway lbw to Bird - and the entire innings lasted less than 20 overs. Before they had managed a run, Kurtis Patterson also departed when he got an inside edge against Bird.
Seven overs past before the mayhem resumed, Jason Sangha beaten by one from Peter Siddle that nipped back and perhaps kept a fraction low.
Then it was back to Bird who had Nick Larkin taken at short leg from an inside edge that ballooned off the pad with Mitchell Starc walking in at No. 7 before lunch.
He did not last long after the interval, flashing an edge to Matthew Wade at slip to give Bird his five-wicket haul in the space of 45 deliveries.
Fortune was on Bird's side for his next wicket when Trent Copeland's edge was parried by third slip and taken by first and two balls later Nathan Lyon chipped to mid-on.
Bird had been at the forefront of the action when play resumed with Tasmania 7 for 258 as he struck a career-best 54 off 55 balls, just his second first-class half-century, in an eighth-wicket stand of 83 with Paine to lift the home side well over 300.
Earlier in the season, New South Wales had been bowled out for 64 by Tasmania in Adelaide but were able to turn that match on its head to secure victory and it's a performance the team will draw on in trying to produce a miracle.
"I know the players are hurting in there about their batting performance and will want to do something about it in the second innings," coach Phil Jaques said. "The players in that changing room can win from anywhere. I know they have the character to do that. We don't want to keep getting bowled out for under a hundred and winning games, there's easier ways than that, but we have full belief we can win from anywhere."
Having decided to bat again, it wasn't entirely smooth sailing for Tasmania as they slipped to 3 for 48 but such was their cushion that it didn't make much of a difference. A series of handy middle-order contributions kept them moving with Paine in the runs for the second time in the match.
Sangha, who struck twice in three balls, and Lyon worked through the lower order as New South Wales rested their quicks in the final session. The last five wickets falling for 17 as Tasmania opted not to give a shellshocked batting line-up an awkward little period before the close.
Andrew McGlashan is a deputy editor at ESPNcricinfo