A look at Test player troughs

In 2014 I had done an analysis of player peaks and in that article I had mentioned that I would be looking at player troughs as well. It is clear that the troughs in a player's career are as important to peruse, as the peaks. Common sense and intuition tells us that huge peaks, necessarily, have to be accompanied by matching troughs. Because of so many other topics and the intervening World Cup, I have been able to cover that fascinating topic only now.

This analysis is current and includes the Bridgetown Test (Test #2160). It was indeed heart-warming to see shades of the vintage West Indies on show for three days. Darren Bravo, Jermaine Blackwood and Jason Holder should form the nucleus of a resurgent West Indian team, which should at least compete, in future. They may not be able to shed the tag "mediocre" in a hurry, but they have already acquired another tag: "fighters". And Shivnarine Chanderpaul, all of 41, should look at quitting. His last-six Tests have yielded 183 runs. At this rate the 87 runs he needs to overhaul Brian Lara may not materialise in the two-Test series against Australia.

First let me state all qualification and selection criteria, of which there are quite a few. The following relates to batsmen streaks.

1. Only batsmen who have scored in excess of 3000 Test runs are considered. The others would not have played enough Tests.
2. Only batsmen whose batting averages are greater than 30 will be considered. This will eliminate bowlers who could bat like Hadlee, Vaas and Warne.
3. But this is not enough. Bowling allrounders like Daniel Vettori, Imran Khan, Kapil Dev, Ian Botham, Shaun Pollock et al and wicketkeepers like Matt Prior, Brad Haddin, Alan Knott et al have to be specifically excluded. All these players have batting averages in excess of 30. Otherwise the table will be dominated by these dual-skill performers.
4. To determine the trough I will use a sequence of 10 Tests. This is likely to cover a period of between eight and 15 months and cover two or three series. Anything fewer will devalue the non-contribution nature of the batsman and anything higher would be too long. It should not be forgotten that if there is a 14-Test streak in which a batsman scored x runs, there will be a streak of ten Tests with fewer than x runs scored, within this longer streak. Ten is not an arbitrarily picked round number but a carefully selected one.

With this introduction, let me move on to the tables. The first table lists the stretches in which the batsmen scored 275 or fewer runs. I have tried to go as low as possible to "enhance the value" of the trough. There were too few entries at 250 and too many at 300. And do not forget that this is across ten Tests. An average score of 27.5 runs per Test is indeed a real trough.

The presence of a few top-order batsmen in this table is quite surprising. Steve Waugh had a sequence of ten Tests at the start of his career in which he scored 271 runs. Mark Taylor scored 251 runs during his leanest of patches during 1996. Zaheer Abbas could only gather 259 runs during mid-career. Graeme Hick and Sanath Jayasuriya are not big surprises.

However, the lowest of troughs was reached by Nasser Hussain when he could manage only 183 runs during 2000. The sequence was a mind-blowing 16, 15, 25, 10, 0, 21, 8, 15, 6*, 10, 22, 0, 0*, 0, 7, 5 and 23. The average: an adjective-defying 13.07.

Ravi Shastri's average all-round skills are showcased by his two streaks. Saleem Malik and Jayasuriya also have two such streaks. However the surprise is that Waugh had two such streaks: One at the beginning of his career and the other after he was established.

The second table lists the troughs of the top-20 batsmen in terms of career runs.

Tendulkar's streak of 337 runs in ten Tests was towards the end of his illustrious career which unfortunately meandered aimlessly towards the 200-Test mark. The last 15 Tests were particularly excruciating. Ricky Ponting's poor stretch was during the early part and included the Indian tour. Jacques Kallis was poor only during the first ten Tests unlike Rahul Dravid who could not deliver in his final series.

Note the very high trough values of Virender Sehwag and Brian Lara, who both had a low which was nearly 500 runs. And it is of interest to note these are two free-scoring batsmen. Kumar Sangakkara and Graeme Smith are also quite close to this mark.

This is a special table. This lists the top ten of the lowest aggregates of runs scored in the batsman's career. As usual it is Don Bradman at the top, then a few kilometres and the next best batsman. Bradman's lowest 10-Test streak was 997 runs during a period which included the Bodyline Tests. But look at Jack Hobbs. His worst streak was nearly 700 runs, which could be the best streak of a few specialist batsmen.

But the most interesting player is the next one. David Warner's lowest 10-Test aggregate is an imposing 594. Granted, that he has played only 36 Tests. But this comprises of 26 10-Test streaks and Warner has never gone below this figure. I doubt whether he would ever go below 500 in future as he plays more Tests, he being an attacking batsman like Sehwag. Ross Taylor is a real surprise at No. 10. This shows a level of consistency not normally attributed to Taylor. Jonathan Trott's appearance in this list of top batsmen belies his travails after his comeback, beautifully described in George Dobell's moving article.

Now for the details relating to bowler streaks.

1. Only bowlers who have captured in excess of 100 Test wickets. This would require between 15 and 30 Tests: enough Tests to do a decent analysis.
2. But this is not enough. Batting allrounders like Garry Sobers, Kallis, Carl Hooper, Wilfred Rhodes, Shastri, Trevor Bailey et al have to be specifically excluded. Otherwise the table will be dominated by these dual-skill performers.
3. To determine the trough I will use a similar sequence of ten Tests. This is likely to cover a period of between eight and 15 months and cover two or three series. Anything fewer will devalue the non-contribution nature of the bowlers and anything higher would be too long. It should not be forgotten that if there is a 13-Test streak in which a batsman captured x wickets, there will be a streak of ten Tests with fewer than x wickets captured, within this longer streak.

With this introduction, let me move on to the tables. The first table lists the stretches in which the bowlers captured 15 or fewer wickets. I have tried to go as low as possible to "enhance the value" of the trough. There were too few entries at 12 and too many at 18. And do not forget that this is across ten Tests. One-and-a-half wickets per Test is indeed a real trough.

The English selectors during late-1990s should have been a really patient lot. Otherwise how would they have kept their faith in Andrew Flintoff when he captured seven wickets in his first ten Tests? Not that his bat was very effective: he scored only 255 runs. The "Next Botham" promise should have seen Flintoff through a few Tests. But he repaid the faith vested in him by the selectors: and how? It is amazing how John Emburey kept his place in the English team with an average of two wickets per Test. His worst stretch was during the peak of his career when he captured a princely one wicket per Test. Amazing! It is the only word that comes to mind.

The top bowlers who appear in this list are Alan Davidson, Richie Benaud and Craig McDermott, right at the beginning of their careers, Imran Khan and Botham towards the end and Chaminda Vaas, Ishant Sharma and Underwood at their peak. Some of these played as pure bowlers.

Unlike batsmen, no bowler had two non-overlapping streaks.

The top batsmen like Sachin Tendulkar, Ponting and Steve Waugh have had very poor runs in their career. However the bowlers are different. Of the top-13, barring Kapil Dev, no one has had a real poor run. Kapil captured 16 wickets in a barren mid-career period. Kapil, incidentally, captured only 20 wickets in his last ten Tests. Shane Warne had an average haul of 22 wickets during 1998. Shaun Pollock captured only 21 wickets during an average stretch but scored over 400 runs during this phase.

Dale Steyn and Richard Hadlee have been magnificent even when things were not going well. Steyn's lowest haul is 37 wickets while Hadlee's is 36. These figures are better than many a bowlers' career WpM figures. Anil Kumble and Glenn McGrath are the other bowlers who have never gone below 30 during their worst career phases.

This is the special list of bowlers whose troughs are better than the crests of many bowlers. The most intriguing bowler in this list is Mohammad Asif. What a waste of world-class talent. I have found that after Asif's ban, Pakistan has played 36 Tests. If he had maintained the wonderful strike rate he exhibited in the early matches, he would be sitting with 250-plus Test wickets. He might even have upstaged Steyn.

Bill O'Reilly's lowest stretch produced 47 wickets. Recently Saeed Ajmal has been very good. It is unfortunate that he has been banned, no doubt due to his own shortcomings, and has come back half the bowler he was. Stuart MacGill is a revelation. What heights he might have reached if he had been born a decade earlier or later? R Ashwin has bowled mostly on favourable wickets. Ryan Harris is another example of an outstanding bowler who has achieved a lot despite a multitude of injuries.

Bradman memorabilia
The Bradman memorabilia this time presents a lovely painting by Wesley Walters, the Australian portrait painter, which captures vividly the 100th run of the 100th FC century of Bradman, scored on 15 November 1947. The painting is titled "From the Hill" and is exhibited in the State Library of South Australia, Adelaide.

To view/download the photograph, please click on the link HERE.

Finally, an important announcement for all readers:

My next article, expected to be published during the first week of June, will be a very special tribute to the ODI careers of two wonderful batsmen: Jayawardene and Sangakkara. After that I will take a six-month break from this blogspace. As things stand, I expect to return in the New Year. I would be failing in my duties if I did not place on record my heartfelt thanks to ESPNcricinfo, in general and S Rajesh and Sambit Bal, in particular.

What do I say about my readers? I have been privileged, I would even say, blessed, to have the collection of readers over the years. As I have always said, without the readers, I am nothing. You have all been wonderful, inspiring, insightful and rarely has an article gone by without a new idea being floated. I owe all of you everything. Maybe I will take this sabbatical as an opportunity to look at a book (or two) which many of you have been asking for.