The first batting World Cup

This article is a little bit different from the first article on the World Cup. It's less tongue-in-cheek and more serious analysis, but no huge tables. Everything is concise. For analysis purpose I have grouped the matches into four classifications: all ODI matches up to 3598 (just before the 2015 World Cup), all World Cup matches between 1975 and 2007, the 2011 World Cup, and the 2015 World Cup. The 2011 World Cup classification was an afterthought and allows us to see how the trends have moved over the past four years. The conclusions are inescapable. This World Cup can be termed the World Batting Cup - 2015. There are some new ideas in the article, such as the over in which the scores are doubled, the number of ten-run overs, a proper 300-run% determination, and so on.

1. Scoring rates

                   Overs    Runs   RpO
All ODIs upto WC: 318254 1513125  4.75
WCs 1975-2007   :  27616  124967  4.53
WC-2011 matches :   4237   21333  5.03
WC-2015 matches :   3121   17730  5.68

Let us start with something simple: the scoring rate. The scoring rate, which has been well below 5.0 in all the ODIs and WC matches up to 2007, jumped by about 10% to 5.03 in the 2011 World Cup. That was understandable. But there is another jump by over 10% in this World Cup. It is clear that this is a combination of the new rules, audacious fearless batting methods, and the changes in pitches in Australian and New Zealand. Is this what the spectators want to see? I am not certain.

2. Average first innings score

                   Inns    Runs  Score
All ODIs upto WC:  3598  820156   228
WCs 1975-2007   :   303   68987   228
WC-2011 matches :    49   11977   244
WC-2015 matches :    35   10002   286

The average first-innings score, which remained at 228 through all matches and the first nine World Cups, registered a slight increase to 244 in 2011. Now this average suddenly jumps to 282, a 15% increase. Same comments apply.

3. Average first innings score (teams lasting till the end)

                   Inns    Runs  Score
All ODIs upto WC:  2647  653900   247
WCs 1975-2007   :   231   57785   250
WC-2011 matches :    27    7770   288
WC-2015 matches :    26    8403   323

This is a variation of the average first innings, with the proviso that the team should have completed the innings: 60 or 55 or 50 overs. The average first-innings score, which remained at around 250 through all matches and the first-nine World Cups, registered a good increase to 288 in 2011. Now this average suddenly jumps to 322, a 10% increase. Imagine this: if the innings runs through its course, we can expect an average score well in excess of 300. Any comments are superfluous.

4. Avge Over at which the score was doubled (where data is available)

                  Inns  Over
All ODIs upto WC: 1266  29.5
WCs 1975-2007   :  101  29.5
WC-2011 matches :   27  31.0
WC-2015 matches :   26  33.2

This is a fascinating analysis. I must thank the New Zealand commentators for this. During a match someone said, "The doubling of scores has shifted later to even around the 35th over". He did not have any data to prove it. So I went to work and this table proves exactly that. The qualifying innings are all first innings that lasted until 50 overs: even if the last wicket fell off the last ball. It is obvious that this analysis can only be done for the later half of matches for which ball-by-ball data is available.

First, let me confirm that the old adage: "Doubling of scores at 30 overs" holds good across all ODI matches and the initial World Cups. It is almost exactly at 30 overs. The 2011 tournament saw a slight move up to 31.0 over. But 2015 has seen a significant jump to 33.4 overs. This is almost exactly the two-thirds stage. That means the score is doubled in half the number of overs. Frightening thought indeed for the bowlers.

In this World Cup, the latest stage at which the score was doubled was by South Africa, who doubled the score from 37.2 against Zimbabwe: the Miller-Duminy assault. South Africa had another doubling, from 36.3 overs against West Indies. The only instances of doubling from a point below 30 overs are India, from 28.3 against Pakistan and England, from 27.2 against Scotland. Scotland doubled the score from 25.0 overs against Afghanistan. But they were pulling back the situation from 132 for 6.

5. Avge runs scored in last 10 overs (where data is available)

                  Inns  Runs   Avge
All ODIs upto WC: 1266 93106   73.5
WCs 1975-2007   :  101  7163   70.9
WC-2011 matches :   27  2225   82.4
WC-2015 matches :   26  2690  103.5

We are beginning to see a clear pattern now. The numbers for all ODIs and the first nine World Cups are quite average. Then there is a 5-7% jump in 2011. And a 10-15% jump in 2015. The last ten overs run-accumulation follows a similar pattern. From around 70 through 82 in 2011 to a huge 104 in 2015. Do not forget that this is an average. The top batting teams like South Africa, New Zealand and Australia are likely to score around 130.

The maximum number of runs scored in the last ten overs is by West Indies, whose batsmen compiled 152 against Zimbabwe. South Africa scored 150 against West Indies. On the distaff side, Scotland scored only 55 runs in the last ten overs against Afghanistan.

6. Avge runs scored & wkts captured in first ten overs (where data is available)

                  Inns   Runs     Wkts
All ODIs upto WC: 3688   44.6 for 1.37
WCs 1975-2007   :  280   42.7 for 1.46
WC-2011 matches :   98   46.8 for 1.37
WC-2015 matches :   70   47.7 for 1.54

Now we come to something stable, for the first time in this analysis. The average number of runs scored and wickets lost in the first ten overs. This has remained almost static across all classifications. The value ranges between 43 and 47. That means, even in this World Cup, the teams play carefully at the beginning. All mayhem is in the last 20 overs. There is a slight increase but nothing significant.

In the first ten overs bowled in the World Cup, New Zealand compiled 77 runs for no loss against Sri Lanka. That tally remains the highest to date. Australia follow at some distance, with 63 for 1, against Afghanistan. Looking at the other side, Pakistan complied a measly 14 runs, yes, you read it correctly, 14 for 2, against Zimbabwe. Nasir Jamshed and Ahmed Shehzad scored a single run in 20 balls. It is a credit to the Pakistani bowlers that they won the match. Zimbabwe's opening bowlers are very difficult to get away. The next lowest tally is the redoubtable South Africa's 28 for 2 in their first match in the World Cup.

An interesting feature of Zimbabwe is that while they have conceded 14 and 28 in the first ten overs against two top teams, they have also conceded 152 and 146 runs in the last ten overs. I get the feeling that the twin brothers of Tinashe Panyangara and Tendai Chatara bowl in the last ten overs.

7. % of innings in which 300 or more runs were scored (where such is possible)

                  Inns >300I   %
All ODIs upto WC: 4007  482  12.0%
WCs 1975-2007   :  345   44  12.8%
WC-2011 matches :   62   16  25.8%
WC-2015 matches :   55   25  45.5%

This is a damning and deadly table. The qualifying innings are all first innings, in which it is possible to score 300 or more, and all second innings in which the target is 300 or more. The percentage of 300-plus scores has moved from 12% (once in 8 innings) through 25% in 2011 (once in 4 innings) to 45% (nearly every alternate innings). The score of 300 has been crossed 25 times in 35 matches. This is certainly not cricket as it should be played.

8. Overs in which ten or more runs were scored (where data is available)

                 Overs  Runs  Avge
All ODIs upto WC: 1844 16720   9.1
WCs 1975-2007   :  140  1148   8.2
WC-2011 matches :   49   450   9.2
WC-2015 matches :   35   476  13.6

This table is slightly different in that even 2011 conformed to the rest of the matches. In 9% of the overs, ten runs or more were scored. But in 2015 this figure sees a 50% jump and the figure is now 13.6%. That means once every seven overs.

9. Bowler strike rates

                    Balls  Wkts   BpW
All ODIs upto WC: 1909524 51059  37.4
WCs 1975-2007   :  165700  4253  39.0
WC-2011 matches :   25425   731  34.8
WC-2015 matches :   18731   543  34.5

This is another surprising table. For all the batting mayhem, the bowlers seem to be capturing wickets at the same frequency but conceding more runs. The bowling strike rate has improved during the last two World Cups to 34.6, a 15% improvement from the earlier values. But I must say that the 36 wickets captured at a strike rate of 19 balls per wicket in the two New Zealand matches against Scotland and Australia has contributed heavily to this reduction.

10. % of runs in boundaries (4s & 6s)

                   T-Runs B-Runs    %
All ODIs upto WC: 1513125 580406  38.4%
WCs 1975-2007   :  124967  48062  38.5%
WC-2011 matches :   21333   9156  42.9%
WC-2015 matches :   17730   8510  48.0%

12. Frequency of boundaries

                  T-Balls B-Balls  BpB
All ODIs upto WC: 1909524 136870  14.0
WCs 1975-2007   :  165700  11371  14.6
WC-2011 matches :   25425   2160  11.8
WC-2015 matches :   18731   1959   9.6

Finally we come to the analysis of boundaries. The percentage of boundary runs has moved from 38% through 42% to 48% in this World Cup. The frequency of boundaries has moved from once in 14 balls to once in nine-plus balls. That means two every three overs. When one realises that these two boundaries come to around nine runs, and add the singles, twos and extras, no wonder we are looking at an average scoring rate of 5.6.

13. % of maiden overs (the standard definition)

                   Overs   Mdns   %
All ODIs upto WC: 318254  19451  6.1%
WCs 1975-2007   :  27616   2179  7.9%
WC-2011 matches :   4237    206  4.9%
WC-2015 matches :   3121    126  4.0%

As expected the % of maiden overs bowled has come down from around 7% to 4% now. It is understandable since conceding a maiden nowadays is considered sacrilegious.

The only table I have got in this article is the table of expensive bowling spells in World Cups. These have to be of minimum five-overs duration. I have listed the top 21 entries and there are ten spells from the current World Cup. That means that nearly half of the most expensive World Cup spells have been bowled in the first 35 matches in this World Cup. The two most expensive spells in World Cup history have been bowled in this tournament, that too in the same match. Some situations need not be dwelt upon further. My heart goes out to the poor hapless bowlers.

I can say with certainty that this is the first batting World Cup ever. The trends were there in 2011, but now we see this concept in full bloom. It is unfortunate that even the bowler-commentators seem to find it acceptable that teams can score at will, at ten-plus runs an over, consistently. I only hope that we do not see a 350-plus score in the final by the first batting team. And the circle will be completed if this score is chased down. What needs to be done? I am summarising what I did a couple of years back in a blueprint document.

- Take away the free hit. How can anyone bowl a ball with 0% chance of getting a wicket?
- Allow two bowlers to bowl 12 overs each.
- Remove all Powerplays.
- Have no fielding restrictions of any sort after the first 15 overs.
(Only a stupid captain would keep eight fielders on the boundary. They would be comfortably milked for ten runs an over. Allow the fielding captain to keep a fielder at deep leg position and dare Glenn Maxwell to reverse-sweep the fast bowlers. If he succeeds, he deserves all the accolades. Currently one fielder there means a huge gap elsewhere.)

Bradman memorabilia

This is a magnificent photograph of the seating arrangement of the farewell dinner for Bradman in 1948. This is a "who's who" of anyone who mattered in 1948. In order to read the names properly I have left the huge sized photograph as it is. Look at the collection of players and people connected with the game seated on the main table and the front row of tables. The Australian players have been seated right in the front. The menu seems to a simple one, maybe because of the post-World War II austerity. To view this, please click on HERE.