Are Australia overconfident of beating Sri Lanka?

Predicting the outcome of the individual matches in the VB Series is proving about as easy as doing Rubik's cube but Australia are heavy favourites for the seventh match, against Sri Lanka in Adelaide on Thursday.

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The hosts are (2/11) 1.22 to win it, but having lost twice already, once to South Africa and then to Sri Lanka in their last match, nothing is a given. Sri Lanka, narrowly beaten by South Africa on Tuesday, are 3-1 (4.00) to follow up with a win.

Having lost two of their four matches, you'd have to think Australia would be keyed up for revenge. But the decision to give their captain Ricky Ponting a week off smacks of over-confidence and Sri Lanka will be itching to get at them again.

Australia have won 37 of their 57 one-day games against Sri Lanka, 25 of 31 against them at home and all five of their contests at the Adelaide Oval. That, and the fact that they have won the last two World Cups and will be favourites for the next explains the shortness of their odds here.

Martyn to score big?
In Ponting's absence, Adam Gilchrist, who was himself rested for a couple of games, is favourite to be his side's top scorer, at 7/2 (4.50). Phil Jaques is 4/1 (5.00), Damien Martyn is 9/2 (5.50), and Andrew Symonds, Brad Hodge and Simon Katich are all 5/1 (6.00).

Gilchrist, who has still to rediscover his best form, averages just 31 at the Adelaide Oval and Symonds just 20, but Martyn has enjoyed himself there, averaging 77 with three half-centuries in seven matches.

Sri Lanka, buoyed by the return to fitness and form of their former captain Sanath Jayasuriya, are looking much more like their old selves and are unlikely to just roll over, not least because a place in the final of the series is still up for grabs.

Jayasuriya and Kumar Sangakkara are joint favourites to top score for Sri Lanka at 7/2 (4.50), while captain Marvan Atapattu is 9/2 (5.50) and Mahela Jayawardene is 5/1 (6.00). Tilllekeratne Dilshan, who top scored in the narrow defeat by South Africa, is am 11/2 (6.50) chance to repeat the feat.

As we have talked about at length in the past, Sangakkara has been one of the best Sri Lanka batsmen over the past six months, and there might be some support for him at 5/6 (1.83) to outscore Gilchrist in Adelaide.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.