Little to differentiate well-matched sides

Overall, there's little to choose between Australia and South Africa as ODI teams. Australia are currently ranked No.1 on the ICC table with 130 points, while South Africa's 116 points puts them in third place, with Sri Lanka sandwiched between the two teams. However, in terms of win percentages in ODIs over the last three years, South Africa are marginally in front: since 2009, they've won 31 out of 46 matches, giving them a win-loss ratio of 2.06. Australia are marginally behind with a ratio of 2.03. The biggest difference between the two sides is the number of ODIs they've played during this period: Australia have racked up 86, which is 40 more than South Africa's tally. The other difference is the percentage of matches each team has played against the weaker sides: both sides have 14 against West Indies, Zimbabwe, Bangladesh, and the other non-Test-playing sides. But while this number is only 16% of the matches that Australia have played, for South Africa it's more than 30%. That's also part of the reason why South Africa's rating is lower than Australia's despite a marginally higher win percentage.

In matches between the two teams too, the difference isn't much at all: overall Australia have won 39 to South Africa's 35, while in South Africa the tally is 18-16 in Australia's favour. The only major difference in the wins for both teams is when they've played in multi-team tournaments since 2000. In bilateral series since 2000 South Africa have won more matches - 14 to 12 - but in tournaments consisting of three or more sides Australia have clearly dominated, winning eight out of ten. The key stat for South Africa, though, is that they have won each of the last three bilateral series between the two teams - in South Africa in 2006 and 2009, and in Australia in 2008-09.

South Africa have the advantage of playing at home, but the absence of AB de Villiers due to injury could be a huge blow. de Villiers has been South Africa's best batsman over the last three years, but he has also done exceptionally well against Australia. In 16 ODIs against them he averages more than 51, and the outstanding feature of his batting has been his consistency: he has six fifties in 16 innings, and five other scores of more than 35.

In de Villiers' absence, though, South Africa will rely heavily on their other senior batsmen, Graeme Smith, Hashim Amla and Jacques Kallis. All three have reasonable ODI records against Australia, with Smith doing much better against them at home than away. However, in the home series in 2009, Smith wasn't so prolific, scoring only 140 runs in five innings.

Australia's strength in ODIs over the last few years has been their power-packed batting. Since 2009, four of their top-order batsmen - Shane Watson, Ricky Ponting, Michael Hussey and Michael Clarke - average more than 40, with Watson and Hussey combining that with a 90-plus strike rate. Comparing the top-order batting for all teams in ODIs since 2009, there's again little to choose between the two sides: South Africa average 41.18 at a strike rate of 89.88, to Australia's 38.97 at a strike rate of 83.37.

Watson has been a star for Australia with bat and ball over the last few years, but he'll have a point to prove: in seven innings against South Africa in South Africa, he has a highest of 27 and an average of 15. All those innings, though, we played more than five years ago, before Watson made his name as a top-class opener.

Among the current batsmen, Hussey and Ponting have the best records against and in South Africa, where they both have 40-plus averages and 90-plus strike rates.

In the bowling department too, the two teams have very similar stats: South Africa's overall bowling average in ODIs since January 2009 is 28.79, at an economy rate of 5.03; Australia's is 29.32, at 4.85 runs per over. No other side has a bowling average of under 30, which suggests that these two are the most effective bowling sides going around in ODIs.

Break up the stats into pace and spin, and the numbers for fast bowling is again remarkably similar. That's further exemplified in the numbers for the leading strike bowlers of the respective teams: Mitchell Johnson is under a bit of a cloud for his lack of form recently, but in ODIs since 2009 he has 98 wickets in 62 matches - an average of 1.58 per match - at 26.52 and an economy rate of 4.95. Dale Steyn, meanwhile, has 56 wickets from 34 games - that's 1.65 per game - at 26, and an economy rate of 4.93.

The difference is in the quality of spin bowling. South Africa have been extremely reliant on spinners over the last three years: almost 30% of their wickets have been taken by spinners, compared to just 19% for Australia. The spin average for South Africa is the best among all teams, while Australia's is the worst. A significant reason for that is the performances of Imran Tahir and Robin Peterson in the 2011 World Cup on the spin-friendly surfaces of the subcontinent. If they can replicate at least some of that success in the forthcoming series, then South Africa will have the edge due to their better-balanced bowling attack.