Australian backers happily watching their tail

Brett Lee's heroics with the bat have helped the Australian tail amass over 300 runs already © Getty Images

Anyone who decided to stick out the advice to follow Australia in Sporting Index's "Tails of the Unexpected Market" will need a new calculator after their performance in the third Test at Old Trafford. Tipped at a generous 280-300 before the series opener at Lord's, Sporting Index now make Ricky Ponting's side a massive 460-470, all of which means that if you'd bought at 300, you could now take 160 times your stake and sit back and relax for the rest of the series. However, if you've bought at 300, since their total runs for Nos 8, 9, 10 and 11 across the five-Test series is already 303, then anything from Trent Bridge and The Oval will be a bonus.

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England, in contrast, are still pretty close to their opening quote. On offer at 325-345 before the start of the first Test and dropped to 300-315 before Edgbaston, they are still 340-350, with their total standing at 198 through the first three matches.

As pointed out, the real spanner in the works, for both buyers and sellers, comes when a nightwatchman is used, as it pushes a more specialist batsman to bat at No 8. In fact, this went against buyers of Australia at Old Trafford, when Shane Warne was promoted to No 7 because of Michael Clarke's injury. Unfortunately for buyers, his 90 did not count because he had been moved out of the bottom four.

As a reminder, in the last three home Ashes series England's make-ups were 317 (2001), 269 (1997) and 467 (1993). Two of those series had six Tests, so the overall average per game is 62, which would translate to 310. The make-up from the first three Tests was 198.

Australia's make-ups were 89 (2001), 408 (1997) and 376 (1993), making an overall average of 49.48, translating to 247 this series, but they are well of that schedule, having rattled up 303 in the opening three encounters.

Batting markets perk up
Of Sporting's other series specials, the sudden flux of centuries at Old Trafford has pushed up several of their markets. The highest individual score, which had been offered at 213-220 before Lord's, was reduced to 185-192 after Edgbaston but it's now trading at 190-197. The top scores in the last three home Ashes series were 173, 207 and 200 and Michael Vaughan's 166 has convinced them to put it up a touch. Those with a sense of history may be casting their minds back to 1985 - a series not dissimilar to this one - when David Gower, the then England captain, followed up his 166 with 215.

The lowest all-out score has also risen to 140-146, which still looks about right. The highest innings total is down slightly to 525-540, with 444 the best so far. Given the strength of each side's bowling attacks, that still looks high to me.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

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