Australian Open is Federer's to lose

If Roger Federer does not win this year's Australian Open, which starts in Melbourne on Monday, then he will be kicking himself all the way into next year. With defending champion Marat Safin, four-time winner Andre Agassi and world No 2 Rafael Nadal all missing through injury, Lleyton Hewitt struggling with a virus in the run-up to the event and most of the other likely contenders out of form, everything is set for Federer to regain the title he won for the first time in 2004.

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Himself recovered from a foot injury, Federer is fresh and looks unstoppable, a fact reflected in the price offered by bet365 on him taking the title. Federer is just 2/5 (1.40) for victory - as short a price as I can remember in the last 20 years on any man at the start of a grand slam event. Hewitt and Andy Roddick are next at 9/1 (10.00) while David Nalbandian is 12/1 (13.00) and Ivan Ljubicic is 16/1 (17.00).

But, unless you have bucket-loads of money, you're not going to get too rich backing Federer, so it's worth looking for outsiders who might have a chance to come through to the final. Barring upsets, Federer will be in the final, so if we accept that, we have to concentrate on the bottom half of the draw. That rules out the likes of Guillermo Coria, Feernando Gonzalez, Juan Carlos Ferrero and Richard Gasquet.

NALBANDIAN CONFIDENT
Of the bottom half, Nalbandian must have a great chance to get to his first grand slam final. Having beaten Federer, from two sets down, to win the Masters Cup in Shanghai in November, the Argentinian should be high on confidence and his game is easily good enough to get to the final.

With immense stamina and a backhand most players can only envy, Nalbandian has been knocking on the door for a long time and now could be his time. His path to the last 16 looks clear and though his route to the final could be blocked by James Blake, Mario Ancic and perhaps Roddick, he has the ability to beat them all.

At 12/1 (13.00) he is reasonable each-way value in an event shorn of so many top players. If not him, then Blake could be the one to come through. The American has maintained his improvement after reaching the quarter-finals at the US Open last year and he is finally showing the potential that so many saw several years ago. At 22/1 (23.00) he is also worth a bet.

CAMBERS' CALL:
Roger Federer - to win - 2/5 (1.40)
David Nalbandian E/W 12/1 (13.00)
James Blake E/W 22/1 (23.00)

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.