Can England buck the trend?

Just a few hours to go now until the start of the Ashes and Australia are holding steady at 4/9 (1.44) to win the first Test in Brisbane, while England remain 11/2 (6.50) and the draw is a 7/2 (4,50) chance.

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A repeat of England's superb win at the Gabba in 1986 - which put England on course for a 2-1 series victory - may be too much to hope for but even a repeat of their draw there in 1998 would help to convince the Australians that they will not simply roll over and hand back the Ashes they won so memorably last summer.

However, their task in Brisbane is likely to be incredibly tough. Australia are 4/9 (1.44) while England are 13/2 (7.50) and the draw is a 3/1 (4.00) chance.

For a start, England's side is not quite as strong as it was last summer. Captain Michael Vaughan and bowler Simon Jones are missing through injury for the entire series - the latter definitely and the former probably. And stand-in captain Andrew Flintoff goes into the first Test with very little bowling under his belt after ankle surgery. Steve Harmison has not shown any consistency of late and the withdrawal of Marcus Trescothick on the eve of the series has left a hole in the batting line-up that will be difficult to fill.

The debate over which of Monty Panesar and Ashley Giles should get the nod as the only spinner is causing the England selectors headaches, while the top order looks a little light. Geraint Jones will need to chip in with plenty of runs while keeping wicket well, which is no easy task. And Flintoff and Kevin Pietersen will be under pressure to perform as they did last summer.

Second, Australia have what can only be described as a phenomenal record in the opening match of Test series in the past decade. You have to go back to September 1999, in Kandy, to find the last time they were beaten in a Test series opener, by Sri Lanka. Since then, they have won 24 and drawn three of their 27 series openers, a remarkable record, even given their overall dominance.

Their record in Brisbane is good too, with seven wins from their past 10 there. As I said, though, England managed a draw there in 1998 and arguably their defeat in 2003 had more to do with the fateful decision to field first by Nasser Hussain than their actual performance in the match itself.

On the other hand, not everything is in Australia's favour. An injury to Shane Watson in the build-up has affected their preparations ever so slightly as the all-rounder is seen as important to their hopes of playing a fifth bowler. If he is not fit, then Michael Clarke will play as a batsman, which is hardly a bad thing for them given his talent.

Equally, despite the emergence of Stuart Clark and Shaun Tait, they are still reliant on the old warhorse Glenn McGrath and the world's leading wicket-taker Shane Warne. Both are still formidable performers - especially Warne, who is closing on on 700 wickets - but they are in the twilight of their careers and are susceptible to injury. We saw last summer that Australia are not quite so effective when McGrath is missing - England won both matches - and Warne is equally effective.

Australia have the better team on paper but England have shown themselves to impressively resilient in the last few years, which makes picking a result in Brisbane not quite so clearcut as it may seem.

I hope I am wrong, but with the weather set fair, it's hard to see anything other than an Australia win and 4/9 (1.44) is perhaps not as short as I'd have expected.

Australia are also 4/9 to command a first Innings lead, while England are 13/8 , while bet365 also have top batsman markets available for both teams. Kevin Pietersen and Andrew Strauss are joint favourites at 3/1 for England, while Paul Collingwood could be a spot of value at 13/2 to get the most runs.

It's a close call for top Australia bat with Ricky Ponting the marginal 10/3 favourite ahead of 4/1 shots Justin Langer and Matthew Hayden, while Damien Martyn and Michael Hussey are 5/1 with bet365.

There are also some individual batsman matches, including Strauss (5/6) v Langer (5/6), Cook (5/6) v Bell (5/6) and Ponting (8/11) v Pietersen (Evs).

Cambers' Call: Australia to win first Test - 4/9 (1.44)

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.