Draw likely in Colombo

After a run-fest in the second Test, Sri Lanka go into the third and final Test against India in Colombo on Tuesday knowing that all they need to do is to avoid defeat to seal a home series victory.

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India bounced back well with the bat in the second Test to draw that one, but their massive problem is that with their bowling line-up hugely depleted because of injury, it looks incredibly difficult for them to take the 20 wickets they need for victory.

Perhaps their best chance will be to win the toss, bat first and put a massive score on the board, which could then exert some pressure on the hosts. The Sri Lankans don't need to win, though, so it's no surprise that bet365 make the draw the 8/11 favourite, with Sri Lanka 11/4 and India 10/3 to win it.

The ever-brilliant Kumar Sangakkara, a double-centurion in the second Test, is favourite to top-score in Colombo in his side's first innings, at 10/3, while Tharanga Paranavitana, who scored a century in the second Test, and Mahela Jayawardene, who hit 174, are each 7/2.

For India, Virender Sehwag, fit again after missing the second Test, is favourite for India at 10/3, just ahead of Sachin Tendulkar, who is 7/2 after his own brilliant double-hundred in the second Test. Gautam Gambhir and Murali Vijay are both 4/1, while Rahul Dravid is 9/2.

This is one of those matches that really looks inevitable to me - so long as Sri Lanka play sensibly and keep their focus, they will not lose, because India's bowling attack is so weak right now, so the 8/11 is a more than generous price for the draw.

Cambers' Call
Sri Lanka and India to draw the 3rd Test - 8/11 bet365

Original series preview
Sri Lanka and India begin a three-Test series in Galle on Sunday with plenty to play for but the fact that Muttiah Muralitharan will be playing a Test for the final time gives the hosts the added impetus to make a winning start to the series.

Sri Lanka won the last series between the two on home soil - 2-1 in 2008 and with India looking like their bowling might be a little weaker than usual - hit by a series of injuries to the fast men - everything is in Sri Lanka's hands to record another series win.

Muralitharan needs just eight more wickets to reach 800 and set a target that may never be matched. It would obviously be the perfect way to go out should he manage it in a Sri Lanka win, and bet365 make them 9/4 to win the opener, with India 10/3 and the draw the favourite at 5/6.

For the series, bet365 go 11/8 on a Sri Lanka win, 7/4 against India winning it and 23/10 that they stay locked together in a drawn series.

On paper, Sri Lanka look like they should win the match, it really is just a question of how well the Indians can bat. Now obviously the top six in the India side are absolutely fantastic -Gambhir, Sehwag, Dravid, Tendulkar, Laxman and Yuvraj Singh will make any attack run a mile but if their bowlers won't be taking too many wickets, they will have to shoulder even more of the burden.

Ajantha Mendis may not be fit for the first Test but Sri Lanka can field Rangana Herath alongside Muralitharan and with Lasith Malinga back after two and a half years away, they have the variety and class to make life difficult for India.

Tillekaratne Dilshan is playing beautifully for Sri Lanka while Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene will also fancy their chances of scoring heavily.

With the draw the favourite in the outright markets, it's no surprise that the draw should also be favourite in the correct score markets, with 1-1 being the outright leader at 15/4, with a 1-0 win for Sri Lanka being next in line at 5/1.

The it all gets a bit cramped, with a 2-0 win available at 6/1 - the same price as a 1-0 win for India. A 2-0 win for the Indians is strangely just 13/2, a 0-0 draw is on offer at 17/2, and India to win 2-1 and Sri Lanka to win 2-1 are both 9/1 chances. A 3-0 whitewash for the home side is 20/1 and a 3-0 win for India is the same price.

It all promises to be a tight contest but if Sri Lanka don't win the first Test, then the Gods might have something to answer for, denying Muralitharan the most fitting way of all to go out. Murali is 4/7 to get 160 or more in the player performance market, which rewards a player with one point per run scored, 20 per wicket and 10 for each catch taken, a price that looks pretty fair.

Overall, I can see India holding on for a draw in the series, but they are going to have to work very hard to do it and everything could depend how the first Test turns out.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.