England expects as Cairns says farewell

England's cricket fans are still pinching themselves, after the class and ease with which their team has romped through the first two Tests of the summer. But that astonishment is nothing compared to the shock and awe in the New Zealand camp. The Kiwis have had just two days to recover from their bruising nine-wicket defeat at Headingley, and now face a massive task if they are to avoid one of the least predicted whitewashes of all time.

As Brian Lara proved to England back in April, nothing can be taken for granted where clean sweeps are concerned, but New Zealand's litany of injuries has stretched their 14-man squad way beyond its means. Their two most potent bowlers, Shane Bond and Daniel Vettori, are out of contention, while their batting has been severely dented by hand injuries to Michael Papps and Craig McMillan.

As a result, Mathew Sinclair and the left-arm seamer James Franklin have been called into the squad, although quite how the Kiwis intend to replace Vettori is another question. There has not been enough time to fly a replacement all the way over from New Zealand, and on Monday, Stephen Fleming hinted that they may resort to blooding some youngsters as an emergency measure.

Another, less probable solution, would be a last hurrah for that most combative of souls, New Zealand's coach John Bracewell. He is only 46, after all, and his inclusion as a spinning option would bolster the batting as well - he scored his one and only Test century at Trent Bridge back in 1986.

More likely, however, is that New Zealand will seek to draw their inspiration from another man with fond memories of Nottingham. Tomorrow, Chris Cairns begins his 62nd and final Test, at the ground that became his second home throughout the 1990s. He, of all people, has the capacity to raise New Zealand's game when it is most needed.

But it is far from the homecoming that Cairns had envisaged at the start of the tour. "To say we're down is an understatement," he admitted. "There are a lot of disappointed guys, and we have to pick ourselves up and play like we know we can. A victory is all I want. For me it's always been about winning. I find individual performance is shallow if it doesn't lead to a victory."

Cairns had no doubt about the difference between the sides. "Purely Steve Harmison," he said. "Overall the teams are pretty similar, but Harmison has spearheaded their attack. Unfortunately we haven't had someone to do the same thing." Harmison's 15 wickets have taken his tally for 2004 to 38 in six games - second only to Muttiah Muralitharan, whom he also trails in the world rankings.

He is currently the hottest property in world cricket, and with that in mind, Duncan Fletcher has warned that he may be rested for much of the NatWest Series against New Zealand and West Indies later this month. But one man who needs all the bowling he can get is James Anderson. He has recovered from a bruised heel and is expected to start his first Test since England's innings defeat in Colombo last December.

That's tough luck on Martin Saggers, who let nobody down at Headingley and even celebrated his recall with a first-ball wicket. But Anderson is in desperate need of a run-out, after a frustrating winter on the sidelines in Sri Lanka and the Caribbean.

"The way the lads bowled in the West Indies and in these Tests has made me more determined to squeeze back into the team," said Anderson, adding that his heel was not a massive problem. "I've got a little bit of the old pace back from when I first started with England, and hopefully I'll have the same sort of success."

That would certainly be a bonus for England - Anderson shot to stardom with his matchwinning four-wicket haul against Pakistan in the World Cup, and followed up with five wickets on his Test debut at Lord's. And given Trent Bridge's seamer-friendly reputation - James Kirtley took six wickets in last year's victory over South Africa - it is the ideal ground on which to launch a comeback.

And the ideal time as well, for everything is currently rosy in England's garden. Confidence is soaring, and the general belief is that things can only better. After all, the Headingley Test was made memorable by the contributions of England's youth brigade, but it was the old guard who starred in the Caribbean triumph. However, Graham Thorpe and, especially, Mark Butcher have been peripheral characters in this series so far, while Michael Vaughan is due some big runs as he beds down in the No. 4 position.

It is a long time - three years, in fact - since an England team has exuded such an air of confidence. But we all remember what happened on that occasion. At Old Trafford in 2001, they were seemingly all set for a fifth series win in a row, only to squander eight wickets in the final session, as Pakistan tied the 2001 series at 1-1. Shortly afterwards, England were steamrollered by the Australians.

Somehow, it is hard to envisage a similar failure of nerve at Trent Bridge, but with England, you can never quite be sure. For the moment, it is probably best to keep pinching yourself, just in case.

England (probable) 1 Marcus Trescothick, 2 Andrew Strauss, 3 Mark Butcher, 4 Michael Vaughan (capt), 5 Graham Thorpe, 6 Andrew Flintoff, 7 Geraint Jones (wk), 8 Ashley Giles, 9 Matthew Hoggard, 10 Steve Harmison, 11 James Anderson.

New Zealand (probable) 1 Mark Richardson, 2 Stephen Fleming (capt), 3 Nathan Astle, 4 Mathew Sinclair, 5 Scott Styris, 6 Chris Cairns, 7 Jacob Oram, 8 Brendon McCullum, 9 Daryl Tuffey, 10 Kyle Mills, 11 James Franklin.