England may edge balance of trade

England will be thankful that Shahid Afridi is absent from the first two games of the series, but he will surely play a key part in the outcome of the final three matches © Getty Images

As we've seen, the fixed odds bookmakers make Pakistan big favourites at 1/2 (1.50) to win the five-match one-day series against England. But while there may be little value in that or even the 6/4 (2.50) on an England win, there is plenty of interest in the spread markets with Sporting Index setting some intriguing markets on the series, which begins on Saturday.

Click here to spread bet on Pakistan v England at Sporting Index

One that catches my eye is there Early Trade Deficit, which covers the totals of each team's runs scored in the first 15 overs of their innings throughout the series. Sporting make Pakistan favourites here, at 30-40, therefore suggesting that the cumulative total of Pakistan's runs in the first 15 overs of each innings will be between that mark more than that of England. Checking statistics on this market is not easy, without access to the scorecards, but at a rough estimate, in their last 10 one-day internationals, Pakistan have scored around 80 more than their opponents.

England's mark is about the same. But, and it's a big but, much of Pakistan's firepower at the top of the innings comes from Shahid Afridi, a massive hitter of the ball who can destroy any opening attack, and unfortunately for the home side, he is banned for the first two matches, which is very interesting in betting terms. Without him, they are not exactly circumspect in their approach, but they are nothing to be fearful of.

England have Marcus Trescothick at the top of the order, who will score very quickly when he makes runs, while the news that Matt Prior could come in as a pinch-hitter at the top of the order makes the chances of quick runs that much bigger. A bet on England could pay dividends, especially if they are up after the first two matches as it may be possible to take some winnings before Afridi returns for the second match. The only thing to note is that in the event of a match having no result, then the market will be allocated six points in Pakistan's favour.

In their total series innings 300ups, Sporting go 43-50, which might be a little on the high side. If either teams scores over 300, then the market will award one run per run over that mark, ie a total of 320 would yield 20 points. In the 45 one-day internationals to be played in Lahore, venue for the first two games, only three innings have exceeded 300. In Karachi, venue for the third game, it averages five per game, but in Rawalpindi, the runs have flowed, and teams have made 320 or more on four occasions. Sellers would be advised to get out of the market before the last two games.

Of the players markets, Inzamam-ul-Haq's total runs quote of 180-190 may be a touch low. The skipper has been in superb form of late, and averages 40 in one-day cricket as a whole. But his average at home is just under 60. He will play every game, as captain, and a total in the mid-200s would seem well within his grasp. For England, Paul Collingwood's quote of 125-135 also looks low. Providing he plays each game, his average of 32 would be more than enough and he has been one of the few batsmen to show any form in Pakistan.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

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