England still unlikely winners

England have defied everyone by suddenly finding form in the ICC Champions Trophy, sending South Africa out and sealing their place in the semi-finals after just two matches. But don't expect them to continue that form when it comes to the crunch.

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Ok, so things have gone very well for them so far and out of nothing they have found some great form. I am no killjoy - it's great to see them play like this - and Eoin Morgan has been a revelation - but I really can't see them winning two more matches in the semis and finals when they will meet other sides who are in form.

Whether that opposition is Pakistan, India, Australia, Sri Lanka or New Zealand remains to be seen but it would take a really stunning effort for them to turn from no-hopers to world-beaters. It doesn't happen overnight and while their wins are highly encouraging, it will still take something special for them to win the competition.

Original preview
Humbled by Australia and beaten by just about everyone else in one-day cricket over the past couple of years, England are 16/1 to win the ICC Champions Trophy. It's a big price but probably the right one for only West Indies look a worse outfit than them.

West Indies can be forgiven for whatever results they achieve over the next couple of weeks because of the pay dispute that has left them with a hugely weakened side. England also have absentees - notably Kevin Pietersen and Andrew Flintoff - but they ought to be able to get more than the odd win given their resources.

But the simple fact - as anyone who reads these pages will well know - is that England are not good enough. The game has moved on in the past few years while England have stood still, and perhaps even gone backwards.

No longer is it good enough to build a score slowly, and 220-230 is not going to get the job done on a regular basis. Their batsmen are not dynamic enough and compared to the likes of Sri Lanka and Pakistan, their bowling options are pathetic.

Nothing's going to change over the next fortnight, though, and when they begin their campaign on Friday, they will be totally up against it. They may get the odd win - surely they can't lose the lot - but that is about it.

Captain Andrew Strauss is the obvious favourite to be his side's top runscorer in the competition, at 9/4, while Ravi Bopara and Joe Denly are each 9/2. Owais Shah and Matt Prior are both 11/2 and Paul Collingwood is 15/2. I'd be tempted to suggest Prior is reasonable value but it is only by comparison to the others, not through absolute faith in his ability with the bat, decent a batsman though he is.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.