Follow Tendulkar and Gayle
PIcking the man most likely to score the most runs in a competition as competitive as the World Cup may seem about as easy as finding a needle in a haystack but in truth, it is almost the opposite
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PIcking the man most likely to score the most runs in a competition as competitive as the World Cup may seem about as easy as finding a needle in a haystack but in truth, it is almost the opposite.
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The first thing you need to do it to maximise your chances of success and that means picking someone who plays for a team you think will do well and therefore play the most matches.
Once you have done that, you can further improve your chances by picking someone who you think will play as many innings as possible. That means, for the most part, taking someone who is either an opener or at least in the top four.
In the past five World Cups, the leading runscorer has been in the top three on every occasion, with Sachin Tendulkar, twice, Rahul Dravid, Martin Crowe and Graham Gooch coming out on top.
It stands to reason that openers will have the best chance as they will bat every time, but they also generally bat when the fielding restrictions are lifted, which increases their chances even more.
Bet365 make Australia captain Ricky Ponting the 13/2 favourite but though he is the world's best batsman right now, that is not great value.
Sri Lanka's former captain Sanath Jayasuriya is next at 12/1, while Graeme Smith is 14/1. Both men have chances, of course, particularly Smith, with South Africa looking very strong, but for me, there are some great prices further down, notably Sachin Tendulkar, Sourav Ganguly and Chris Gayle, who are all 16/1.
Tendulkar and Ganguly could well be the opening partnership for India, who I expect to do very well in this competition. Both men are in good form - especially Ganguly - while Tendulkar is all class and will want to show the world that he is still up there among the best of all.
An even better bet could be Gayle, arguably the most destructive opening batsman on show at the moment. The left-hander averagesjust under 40 and has been showing signs of becoming more and more consistent of late.
Ricky Ponting, of course, is a threat, while Mohammad Yousuf is a great batsman and the likes of Kevin Pietersen will want to make their mark.
If push comes to shove though, I would suggest each-way bets on both Tendulkar and Gayle, with bet365 paying each-way terms of a quarter of the odds for the first three. I'd be surprised if both were outside that.
Cambers' Call:
Sachin Tendulkar E/W to be top runscorer
Chris Gayle E/W to be top runscorer
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.
Simon Cambers is Cricinfo's betting correspondent
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