History is against England

England have been far from successful on their previous one-day safari trips in South Africa and when they go on the hunt for victory in a five-match series, which starts on Friday in Johannesburg, spread betting bookmakers Sporting Index reckon it will be a familiar tale

Click here to spread bet on South Africa v England at Sporting Index

In the past, England's players have resembled the bounty hunters of yore from Blighty; firing pop guns wildly and waywardly or cowering at the back as the big game approaches. And South Africa are big game indeed. They have won their last 17 two-team series at home, which makes them the most fearsome of all beasts on their own turf in the world game.

England have been savaged in their last two series there; losing 6-1 in 1995-96, 4-1 in 2005 and in between was a forgettable display in a triangular series involving Zimbabwe. So it is no surprise that Sporting have South Africa as strong favourites. Awarding 10 points per match won and 25 points for winning the series, the firm have priced them up at 49-53 favourites with England 22-26.

Graeme Smith's side are the cricket betting heat equivalent of a lioness chasing down a pasty-legged bush tourist (a sly reference to England's injury woes; Stuart Broad, Paul Collingwood, Graeme Swann and James Anderson at the last count) on the other two key markets.

They are 95-125 jollies on the series supremacy line (10 points per wicket won by and one point per run won by) and 30-40 favourites on the early trade deficit (a runs series bet involving only the first 15 overs).

But before you get carried away, remember that on every safari there was a spotter to ensure the trophy-hunters went home with something for the study. Indeed, had you bought South Africa on the series supremacy line at the same price for the series four years ago (for the sake of fairness we'll only include the first five matches of what was a seven-game marathon), you would have lost six units.

England are boosted by their victory over South Africa in the Champions Trophy in September but the greatest fillip comes in the form of toss-dependent day-night matches at Cape Town and Durban, venues for the third and fifth one-day internationals.

At Newlands, 12 of the last 14 have been won by the side batting first. At Kingsmead it is five from seven. If England can call right in two of those, then a sell of South Africa's series supremacy might be the way to go. It's not for the fainthearted, though.

There are other markets that excite, too. Sporting might have overrated South Africa's opening batsmen and underrated England's. The firm have quoted the home side's aggregate series opening partnership at 190-200 when, over the last 12 months, an average of 35 runs per game would see it make up at 175. England average the same of the last 12 months, which would suggest a quote of 150-160 is a buy.

Individual player markets are the ones which are likely to see most activity. Four worth focussing on are Smith series runs (195-205), Kevin Pietersen's runs (190-200), Eoin Morgan's runs (128-138) and Dale Steyn's series bowling index.

Smith, who should open the batting, notched 310 runs against England four years ago from the seven games. That was 44 runs every time he went to the wicket and if he repeats that form he will make a profit for buyers. In all ODIs at home, Smith averages a nick more than 40 per game which would put him two shy of the buy price. Hardly a huge downside.

KP memorably whacked 454 runs in that series but to buy again on the basis of that would not be smart. Instead, it is worth looking at his overall career. He averages 33.9 runs per wicket. A repeat will put him well under the quote. As for Morgan, his 147 runs in South Africa in the Champions Trophy and his blistering form in the Twenty20 makes him a tempting buy. In six matches in the Rainbow Nation, he averages 48.5 runs per walk to the wicket.

Steyn is the most exciting bowler on show thanks to his reputation as one of the best death bowlers around. With the likelihood that he will pick up wickets up front, too the fast man looks a cheap buy at 86 (10 points per wicket and 25 points bonus for five-wicket haul).

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.