How to win the 2007 World Cup

Earlier posts: intro, 1, 2, 3.

Sourav Ganguly and John Wright set the bar pretty high for their successors. They won Tests at home and abroad and they took India to the finals of a World Cup.

The only way Rahul Dravid and Greg Chappell can improve on that record is by winning Test series abroad and winning the 2007 World Cup. In the final analysis, anything else is a letdown.

How do you win a World Cup? On the basis of historical evidence, the following ways can work.

1) Overwhelming dominance: This happens when one team plays so well, so consistently that it wipes the floor with allcomers. This has happened twice – in 1979 and in 2003. In 1979, West Indies were truly a country mile better than every other team on almost every parameter.

If you think about it, 2003 was a minor miracle. Australia had two-and-a-half bowlers and no bench strength. Glenn McGrath and Brett Lee invariably broke through and neither broke down physically. Andy Bichel punched way above his weight with bat and ball.

2) Luck: In 1983, India picked a squad perfectly suited to English conditions with batting depth allied to a dibbly-dobbly attack that exploited heavy atmospherics. There was no conscious effort to do this on the part of the selectors. When England and New Zealand tried to replicate this balance in 1992, they didn’t pull it off.

3) Smart strategy and tactics: In 1996, Sri Lanka thought things through carefully and executed new plans to perfection. They exploited the first 15 overs through dedicated, even manic pinch-hitting and blew unsuspecting opening bowlers away. They picked a bunch of spinners (including intelligently using Aravinda de Silva and Sanath Jayasuriya) who could strangle the opposition by using classic subcontinental conditions well.

4) Heart: In 1975, 1987, 1992 and 1999, the team with the most heart in close situations won. In 1975, Andy Roberts and Derryk Murray pulled off a one-wicket miracle against Pakistan and Viv Richards hit the stumps thrice in the finals. Mike Veletta slammed a quick 40 in the 1987 finals to give the Aussies a competitive score. After losing several early games, Pakistan fought like “wounded tigers” in 1992 as did Australia in 1999.

Four ways to win a World Cup then.

The first is not an option in 2007 for Chappell-Dravid. Unless a couple of teenaged geniuses surface, India will go into the 2007 World Cup with a squad that’s not much better or much worse than several others.

Luck always plays a part but you can’t rely on astrological configurations. Win the right toss, pray your opposition drops the right catches, etc. Sure! But I don’t see Dravid & Chappell walking away with the cup through luck alone.

I’m sure you’ll see some smart strategy and tactics. For example, the introduction of floating No. 3s and the exploitation of powerplays and supersubs has been very interesting against Sri Lanka and South Africa so far. There is also an apparent attempt to sharpen the fielding, cut down on sloppy extras, etc.

As the rules now stand, one-day internationals are far more complex games than before. Dravid and Chappell both have a reputation for being cerebral guys – they’re unlikely to miss these little tricks. But smart strategy has won just one out of eight World Cups. It’s against the odds that simply smart strategy will be enough.

So we return to heart. Or morale. Or moral fibre. Whatever you call it, in close situations the team that believes more in itself wins. It’s been the decisive factor in at least four out of eight World Cups.

Fostering moral fibre is a “soft skill”. To all appearances, the team of Dravid-Chappell has a lot more between its collective ears than the average captain-coach combine. But it’s very likely that the key to better results lies in their ability to turn a bunch of disparate individuals into a team with heart.

The results in the packed schedule of games (Tests & one dayers) between now and the 2007 World Cup matter most in this context. If the team starts winning consistently, and especially if it can win close encounters against strong teams, it will develop heart.

It is also in this context that one must view the absence of Ganguly, Zaheer Khan and Ashish Nehra. If a squad without this trio possesses more heart than a squad with them, well, obviously pick the former squad!

Devangshu Datta is a senior journalist based in Delhi.

Mukul Kesavan will post his views next, on Monday, November 21, sometime in the afternoon, India time.