India may be value in group stages

As we have already discussed, picking the winner of a Twenty20 tournament, with any degree of certainty, is close to impossible, regardless of the fact that Australia may be the best side in the competition.

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The Aussies are the deserving favourites to win the World Twenty20, starting on April 30 in the Caribbean, but the bookies are pretty wary of the unpredictability of this format, for at 7/2, they are shaky favourites.

There is, therefore, some decent value further down the betting but it is also worth looking at bet365's markets for the group betting, where there are also some interesting prices.

First, we need to look at the details in the group stages and the fact that two of the three teams in each group qualify is important, because it makes it that much more unlikely that a big side will go out in the group.

However, since no points from the group stages carry over to the Super Eight - fir the remaining eight sides - that means that the top teams can afford to lose to each other, as long as they beat the supposed weaker side.

That, to my mind, makes it more likely that there will indeed be a couple of upsets in the groups, at least in terms of which team wins their respective group.

Australia are 4/7 to win their group, but defending champions Pakistan will be dangerous at 7/4, while Bangladesh cannot be taken for granted at 9/1. Here, the fact that Bangladesh are there may actually focus Australian minds immediately, so this one may be best left alone.

What you want, from a betting perspective, is a group where there are two relatively evenly matched sides and one total no-hoper. Step forward group 3.

India and South Africa are both rated as 5/6 chances to win this one, with Afghanistan at 750/1. Now there is no way that either India or South Africa will lose to the Afghans, so it comes down to the match between the two.

South Africa have a squad of fine players and their fielding is probably superior to India's - more important in this format than any other - but India's extra explosiveness makes them favourites in my mind.

The loss through injury of Virender Sehwag has thrown a spanner in the works but Yuvraj Singh is still there and he was almost born to play this format of the game. The Indians have a great captain in MS Dhoni and a varied bowling attack that is at least the equal of any other in the competition. All things being equal, they should be favourites in the group, so the price of 5/6 may prove to be pretty popular.

In group 4, Ireland have already shown enough in recent years to suggest that they could upset one of England and West Indies. Hosts West Indies will have the home support to feed off, but they are no world-beaters and though England have improved their Twenty20 strengths a lot in recent times, there won't be much to choose.

The toughest group to pick is the one including Sri Lanka, New Zealand and Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe, at 18/1 may just fancy their chances of at least one win, which could be enough to go through and though on paper, Sri Lanka and New Zealand are favourites, they may have to endure one or two tricky moments.

Cambers' Call
India to win group 3 in World Twenty20 - 5/6 bet365 Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.