India on the brink of series win

The fourth and final Test between India and Australia begins on Thursday with the Aussies gunning for the victory they need to draw the series. But the home side, who won the second Test, hold all the aces and stand on the brink of an impressive victory.

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Gautam Gambhir, one of India's batting heroes in the first three Tests, will miss the final Test in Nagpur, after his appeal against a one-match ban was rejected. Bet365 reacted immediately by cutting the odds on a draw.

Only an Australia win can deny the Indians the series victory - as they achieved in 2001 - and while Australia should never be written off, the draw, at 5/6 is the favourite with bet365 in Nagpur and that looks bang on to me.

The retirement of Anil Kumble after the Delhi Test signals the end of an era but with MS Dhoni ready to take over and a team bristling with confidence, the home side are sniffing series glory once more.

To put that into context, Australia have lost just one series since that 2001 defeat - the 2005 Ashes - so if they can get over the line it will be a significant achievement, as much for them as for the rest of the Test-playing world who will have been shown the way.

But, that's getting ahead of ourselves for a second. Australia are still capable of competing and winning the final match, though with their bowling attack having proved ineffective and relatively weak in terms of strength in depth, it won't be easy.

Bet365 make Australia now 11/4 to win the match and draw the series, while India are the same price. Given that India don't need to win the match, that is not surprising at all.

The loss of Gambhir is a blow, though. His 463 runs makes him the leading scorer on either side in the series and his presence at the top of the order had been providing the perfect platform for big India totals.

Wasim Jaffer would seem the man most likely to come in, and with Virender Sehwag, Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid, VVS Laxman and Sourav Ganguly for company, he should be relaxed enough to perform well.

For the record, India have won two, lost two and drawn five of the nine Tests to have been played in Nagpur, but the pitch for this match is a new one, so the history of the ground may not have too much bearing on the result, even if it would seem reasonable to expect it to be prepared with India's strengths in mind.

In the absence of Gambhir, bet365 make Sehwag and Tendulkar joint favourites to top-score in the first innings, at 7/2. Laxman, who has again shown his best form when the Aussies come to town, is next at 9/2. Dravid and Jaffer are each 5/1, while Ganguly, in his last Test match, is a 6/1 chance. And don't forget the new skipper, Dhoni, who is more than capable with the bat, at 11/1.

For Australia, Matthew Hayden, Michael Hussey and captain Ricky Ponting are all joint favourites with bet365 at 7/2. Simon Katich and Michael Clarke, the latter who landed 11/2 odds in the third Test, are both 5/1.

If India bat first, I see this match going very similarly to the last one, if the Aussies can bat as well as they did in Delhi. All of which means that the draw is most likely, and even though bet365 know that, 23/20 could still be worth taking.

Cambers' Call - already advised
India and Australia to draw final Test - 23/20 bet365

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.