India the big danger to South Africa

South Africa, who have made grasping defeat from the fat lady's mouth as she starts to warm up into an art form in global tournaments, are Sporting Index's favourites to put years of misery behind them by winning the Champions Trophy on home soil.

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With the winner being awarded 50 points, the runner-up 25 and a losing semi-finalist 10, the firm have pitched Graeme Smith's side at 19-22. India, ranked as the second best one-day side in the world behind the Proteas, are next best in the betting at 17-20 with Australia 14-17. England, dazed and confused following a 6-1 humbling at the hands of Ricky Ponting's side are rated at 6-9.

Only West Indies, who have sent a virtual reserve side, are rated less likely to make an impact at 1-3. It is difficult to see how England and West Indies will make it out of their respective groups. With the top two progressing to the semis, England must do battle with South Africa, Sri Lanka and New Zealand. West Indies are grouped with Australia, India and Pakistan.

Form guide
Despite their record for faltering in the latter stages of tournaments, South Africa look to be the wager given that even if they finish as runners-up punters will still see a profit. It will be something of a leap of faith for bettors who have lost on them before - this year's World Twenty20, the previous three World Cups and every Champions Trophy since they won it in 1999 - but they really are an impressive unit. Over the last 12 months they have a win percentage of 71 and they have lost only seven times in their last 46 at home. To put that percentage into context, India have a mark of 66, Australia 65, Pakistan 61 and Sri Lanka 53.

India, quite rightly, are the side most likely to stop them. No matter what players come and go, their batting remains much-vaunted. Their tournament runs are set at 1,030, a quote which could be a tempting buy when you consider they are averaging a massive 280 batting first in the last 12 months. MS Dhoni's team may lose supporters on the basis that they have often struggled on quick pitches but they have the third best win-loss ratio of the eight sides in South Africa in ODIs since 2000. Australia are second behind, obviously, South Africa.

The men to trust...
It is rudimentary reckoning to go with the opening batsmen. They get the opportunity to bat for the most overs and for the majority of the powerplay overs. In the last four Champions Trophy tournaments, an opener has finished in the top three runscorers on nine occasions.

The best of the bunch could be Sri Lanka's Tillakaratne Dilshan. Sporting pitch his series runs at 137-147. Don't forget that Dilshan has 'course' form with 418 runs in the IPL. Sachin Tendulkar, another opener, has a runs quote of 168-178. New Zealand's Brendon McCullum gets a quote of 117-127 while England's Andrew Strauss receives 127-137.

For each of the eight sides, Sporting have produced an array of special bets. For example, one can trade a team's total tournament wides, sixes and fours. Unsurprisingly, India get the highest quote for sixes at 18-20.

...and ones to not
It would be a major surprise if England were to make it into the last four and one of the wagers of the tournament could be shorting their team 50-ups. Sporting have the aggregate total of England players' runs over 50 pitched at 110-125. Given that in the seven matches against Australia their aggregate made up at just 43, the phones could be could be ringing off the hook with sellers.

Another potential short could be the all-rounder performance of Luke Wright. Set at 125-135 with one point awarded per run, 10 per catch and 25 per wicket it looks high. Wright's performance average over his career is 24. Even if England make the final and Wright reproduces that form he would make up at 122.

Extras
It is rather a daunting sight to eye Sporting's total tournament markets. Runs for the whole shindig are pitched at 7200-7350 and wides 230-240. Where to start?

Well, over the last 12 months the average 50-over match has produced 430 runs per game. A repeat over the 15 matches would see a make-up of 6450. But before you get excited we must factor in the two venues, Johannesburg and Pretoria. These two grounds average 493 and 408 runs per match in the last five years respectively.

Sporting look to be about right with the wides quote. The average per match in the last 12 months is 15 per game. A repeat would see a make-up of 225.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.