Evenly-matched teams promise close contest

Australia's decline in Test cricket has meant that India and South Africa have contested the most interesting and eagerly anticipated matches in recent times. But the story is quite different in ODIs. Both teams have managed to triumph in bilateral series against Australia in recent times, but have been unable to match the consistency of Australia in global tournaments. While Australia have won the last three World Cups and the previous two editions of the Champions Trophy, South Africa and India have won just one major tournament each in the last 15 years. However, this time the two teams are being seen as leading contenders, and their clash on Saturday could go some way in deciding which team tops the group.

Evenly matched in recent years
India were no match for South Africa for most of the 1990s, winning just nine matches and losing 20. In the 2000s, however, the contests have been far more competitive, with India winning 15 to South Africa's 19. While India won the home series 2-1 in the beginning of 2010, South Africa won a closely fought ODI series 3-2 at home in January 2011. South Africa have won both the World Cup matches played between the teams, but India have emerged on top in both matches played in the Champions Trophy. India, however, have a slight advantage over South Africa in matches played in India since 2000, winning seven matches to South Africa's five.

South Africa the better all-round side
India have been the more dominant side in home ODIs since 2008, averaging over 45 and scoring at over six per over. South Africa are not far behind and average over 40 while scoring at nearly six per over in tougher batting conditions. Both teams have been quite good in the bowling department in their home games with South Africa, in particular, averaging an excellent 26.73. South Africa have been the better bowling team in away ODIs with a slightly better economy rate and average than India's. Since 2008, South Africa have also been the best batting team in the subcontinent, with an average of 45.02, which is higher than that of Australia and India. Their superb bowling average of just over 25 gives them an impressive average difference of nearly 20, which is much better than India's 7.76.

The teams are level 4-4 in eight matches played since 2008. However, when the batting performance in the head-to-head matches is analysed, South Africa have been the more consistent side. They average higher and score at a faster clip in the first 15 overs. India have been the more aggressive batting side in the middle overs, with a boundary percentage of 43 as compared to South Africa's 27. The low dot-ball percentage for South Africa in the middle overs, though, demonstrates that they pick up far more ones and twos than India. South Africa have scored slightly faster than India in the last ten overs and have a lower dot-ball percentage in that phase of the innings.

India's bowling a concern
The analysis of the teams' performances in ODIs since 2008 shows that South Africa have been the better team across the various phases of an innings. While India score at a slightly faster rate in the first ten overs and middle overs, South Africa have been considerably better in the bowling department, which accounts for a better run-rate difference. In the last ten overs of the innings, South Africa have again proved to be the better team in both departments. For India, though, their high economy rate is a cause for concern going into the high-profile clash.

India bank on batting firepower
India boast an excellent batting line-up with a great mix of experience and aggression. Sachin Tendulkar, who scored a record 200 in Gwalior against South Africa, and Virat Kohli have been among the most consistent ODI batsmen in the last three years. The opening partnership of Tendulkar and Virender Sehwag will be the key for India against South Africa's quality pace attack. Though the pair is fifth on the list of most successful opening pairs in ODIs, they have aggregated just 54 runs in five innings against South Africa. The lower middle order of Yuvraj Singh, MS Dhoni and Yusuf Pathan have taken a lot of responsibility in recent times, with Yusuf, in particular, scoring crucial runs against New Zealand and South Africa.

For South Africa, Hashim Amla and AB de Villiers have both scored eight centuries each and average over 55 in the last three years. de Villiers, who started the World Cup with consecutive centuries, also scored two hundreds in the ODI series in India in 2010. Among all South African pairs that have aggregated over 1000 runs, Amla and de Villiers have the best average. For a South African batting order that is top heavy and lacks the aggression in the lower order, their partnership is one of the keys to a competitive total.

South Africa's pace bowling more threatening
While Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel have combined to form a lethal fast bowling attack in the last two years, Zaheer Khan and Ashish Nehra have been India's best pace bowlers in ODIs since the 2003 World Cup. Much of the success for both teams will depend not only on the bowling in the first few overs, but also on the ability of the fast bowlers to use the reverse swing in the middle and late overs of the innings. In matches since 2008, Zaheer has been exceptional, averaging just under 28 and conceding under five runs per over. He has also conceded under 47% of runs in boundaries, which is an excellent effort for a fast bowler who mainly bowls in the first ten overs and the end overs of an innings. Nehra has not been as impressive as Zaheer and averages over 32 with a high economy rate of 5.88. He has also conceded over 52% of his runs in boundaries.

Steyn has not quite been able to replicate his superb Test record in ODIs. He has an economy rate of five per over and high boundary percentage of nearly 51 which is quite poor when compared to the stats of Morkel. Morkel has the best average and economy rate among the four bowlers and also the lowest percentage of boundary runs.

Nagpur, the venue for the game, has hosted five ODIs of which the side batting first has won two. High scores have been chased down successfully on two occasions: Sri Lanka chased India's 300 in 2009 and England chased Netherlands' 292 in their first World Cup match. The team winning the toss, though, has lost all three day-night matches in Nagpur. While Australia decided to chase against India in 2009 and lost by 99 runs, India and Netherlands batted first and lost despite amassing huge scores. Spinners have a better average (35.85) and lower economy rate (5.01) than fast bowlers who average 39.82 and concede 5.82 runs per over.