Why West Indies should expect a backlash

Shocked by a resurgent West Indian line-up in Port Elizabeth, South Africa will be happy that the venue for the second Test is Cape Town. Since their return to the international fold, they have played 18 Tests here, and have an impressive 12-3 win-loss record. The only team they have lost to during this period is Australia, who beat them in 1994, 2002 and 2006. West Indies have played at this venue only twice, losing the first time by 149 runs, but managing a draw the second time around, thanks largely to Dwayne Smith's run-a-ball unbeaten 105 on debut.

Most of the South African batsmen have enjoyed the pitch at the Newlands. Jacques Kallis leads the way, with 12 fifty-plus scores in 22 innings. Neil McKenzie, who has been called up for the game following Herschelle Gibbs' extended poor run, has a good track record here, with three fifties in five innings, including a 99 against Australia in 2002. Among the South African batsmen in the current squad, the only batsman who has struggled to score runs here is AB de Villiers, who averages less than 22 from six games. He struck two half-centuries in the first Test, though, which suggests he will be high on confidence when he comes in to bat for the second Test.

South Africa's opening partnership had been a problem throughout 2007: in 17 innings they managed just one fifty-plus stand, and averaged a paltry 19.52. Their last five opening stands read 1, 8, 2, 1, and 4. They haven't had much success with their opening combinations at Newlands either: in the last two years, the South African openers have scored 160 runs in seven innings, with a highest stand of 36.

Among the current West Indies batsmen, their captain is the only one to have scored a Test fifty here. Daren Ganga has floundered in six innings here, and even Shivnarine Chanderpaul managed just 11 runs in two innings in his only Test.

The other likely change in the South African line-up is the inclusion of Shaun Pollock for Andre Nel, a move which is backed by their stats at this ground. Pollock leads the wicket-takers' tally, with 51 at an excellent average of less than 20. Nel, on the other hand, takes his wickets here at more than 39 apiece, and needs 30 more deliveries per wicket than Pollock.

The good batting conditions here have meant captains winning the toss have chosen to bat almost every time: in the last 18 Tests only twice has the opposition been put in, most recently earlier this year against India, when South Africa chose to field first and ended up with a five-wicket win to seal the series 2-1. The numbers below suggest, though, that the pitch here remains a good one for batting even on the last day.