Onus on England to live up to their billing

Four months ago, while England were rampaging to victory in the Caribbean, it was tempting to be a little bit blasé about the prospects for the return series - the so-called highlight of the English summer - that begins at Lord's tomorrow morning. West Indies were a disorganised rabble, so the general consensus went, while England were soaring higher and higher, as their emphatic victories against New Zealand amply demonstrated. A rout was the only foreseeable outcome.

There'll be no such complacency now. The juggernaut that was England's Test form has been shunted aside by a one-day campaign of Reliant Robin standards, and it is West Indies who have sped to a psychological advantage, particularly at Lord's where, in the most compelling match of the recent NatWest Series, Chris Gayle's rumbustuous century dumped England out of their own one-day party. When set against a backdrop of English defeat, Brian Lara's majestic world record in Antigua reads less as a footnote, more as a premonition.

There is an uncomfortable irony about the timing of yesterday's announcement, that England had been catapulted into second place on the ICC World Test Championship table. Injury and uncertainty - two unwelcome ingredients that were noticeably lacking during England's run of six wins in seven Tests - have taken hold since the New Zealand series, and whatever their achievements in the past year, tomorrow's match promises to be more finely balanced than even the most pessimistic of England supporters could have envisaged.

What is more, it could be a much-changed side that takes the field on Thursday. Personnel-wise, it should look and feel pretty similar to the side that wrapped up the series in Barbados, but as England have found to their cost in one-day cricket, the question of balance is critical to the team's success. In that respect, Andrew Flintoff's ongoing ankle trouble is a grievous blow.

Flintoff, who was first rested entirely and then recalled as a specialist batsman for the NatWest Series, has had to receive a cortisone injection after experiencing pain while bowling during Lancashire's Twenty20 Cup match against Yorkshire last week. Never mind the long-term ramifications and the prospect of surgery; in the short term, his removal from the attack places an extra burden on Steve Harmison, who is not only England's best source of wickets, but the only other bowler who can be relied on to stem the run-flow.

If he continues to reap the wickets as he has been doing this year, Harmison will almost certainly finish this match as the leading bowler in the world, according to the PwC ratings. But the last thing England need is to over-burden their one remaining world-class performer. Though the talent is undeniable, Harmison has yet to demonstrate that his new-found fitness and stamina is anything but a (hugely impressive) flash in the pan, and England would do well to heed the lesson they learnt with Flintoff in 2002. On that occasion, they were so overjoyed to have unearthed a genuine allrounder, that they bowled the poor guy all the way into the operating theatre.

But it is not just the bowling that will give England's selectors one or two causes for concern. In the Caribbean, England owed everything to their troika of middle-order veterans; Mark Butcher, Nasser Hussain and Graham Thorpe. But Hussain has since retired, to be replaced at No. 4 by the off-colour Michael Vaughan, while Butcher's remarkable run of 42 consecutive matches will come to an end after he suffered whiplash during a car-crash in South London and was later ruled out of the starting XI. Ironically, he was on his way to the physio for treatment on the thigh strain that forced him out of last week's MCC fixture, and he will make way for Robert Key, whose stunning early-season form in the Championship will be a distant memory after a disappointing one-day series.

That leaves Thorpe, England's Man of the Match at Trent Bridge, who did at least play in that MCC fixture at Arundel. But since his retirement from the one-day game, he has not exactly been overburdened with match practice, and England will be desperately hoping that he has not gone off the boil in the interim. It is one of the perils of the modern-day English summer, with its midseason emphasis on limited-overs cricket, that the touring sides are invariably better prepared than the home players.

For West Indies, that preparation was capped nicely against Sri Lanka A last week, when runs and wickets were to the fore in a concerted team performance. The most pleasing aspect of that match was the return to form of Shivnarine Chanderpaul, West Indies' second-most experienced batsman behind Lara, whose poor returns in the Caribbean were a significant factor in the ease with which England's bowlers bossed the series.

He may possess the crabbiest technique in world cricket, but Chanderpaul is also one of the most consistently under-rated batsmen in the game, equally adept at attrition or explosive strokeplay. With Lara and Ramnaresh Sarwan, he completes a middle-order that, given a nice sun-baked batting track and an over-stretched attack, could yet cash in as this series progresses. It is one of the mysteries of the modern age how a batting order of such potency could be rolled over in double figures in four of their last eight Tests against England. Don't expect the habit to continue.

And then there is the West Indian bowling attack - perhaps the most diminutive ever to reach these shores, but not to be underestimated at any cost. Tino Best found that the constraints of the NatWest Series did not suit his flamboyant approach, but he still found enough pace and penetration to remind Marcus Trescothick of his struggles against the new ball in the Caribbean. It will be particularly instructive, both for this summer and the series to come, to see how Andrew Strauss fares against the 90mph delivery.

With Fidel Edwards slinging his way into town for the Tests, and Jermaine Lawson back in favour after remedial work on his bowling action, West Indies have the sort of cutting edge that New Zealand, through the injury to Shane Bond, were palpably lacking earlier in the summer. Add to that mix Pedro Collins and his unsettling left-arm line, and it is clear that England's supremacy is not to taken for granted.

It must be a good 50 years since England last began a series against West Indies as the overwhelming favourites. It is a position of unfamiliar responsibility, and the onus is on them to live up to their billing.

England (probable): 1 Marcus Trescothick, 2 Andrew Strauss, 3 Robert Key, 4 Michael Vaughan (capt), 5 Graham Thorpe, 6 Andrew Flintoff, 7 Geraint Jones (wk), 8 Ashley Giles, 9 Simon Jones, 10 Matthew Hoggard, 11 Steve Harmison.

West Indies (probable) 1 Chris Gayle, 2 Devon Smith, 3 Ramnaresh Sarwan, 4 Brian Lara (capt), 5 Shivnarine Chanderpaul, 6 Dwayne Smith, 7 Ridley Jacobs (wk), 8 Tino Best, 9 Jermaine Lawson, 10 Pedro Collins, 11 Fidel Edwards.