Smart money is on getting short

To listen to Steve Rouse, the groundsman at Edgbaston, one could be forgiven for writing off the third Ashes Test as an opportunity for profit. "On Thursday we've got showers coming in from 10, right the way through. Friday is heavy rain from midday. Saturday is showers all day. Sunday is heavy rain all day," he grumbled. Yet whether the players of England and Australia get onto the field for the full five days should matter not a jot to spread punters, who can factor in the forecast to their wagers.

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It was Bing Crosby who sang about pennies from heaven and the smart money will be on getting short of markets which could provide a windfall if the clouds burst.

Sporting, wisely, have priced up the contest - a remake of the 2005 epic with a less stellar cast - with the draw on their side. England are 9.5-11 (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw and zero for a loss) and Australia 11.5-13. Immediately we should treat Rouse's assertion that the wicket will be a "bowler's graveyard" - not the most cheery of chaps is he? - with caution.

With the Met Office predicting rain, it would be folly to bet on a run feast. For a start, the statistics for Edgbaston just do not add up to a scenario where batsmen are going to post big scores. The average first-innings score is just 322 in Tests since 2000 and during that period, four teams have been knocked over for paltry totals in the first match innings: 231, 141, 164 and 179. Granted, England posted 566 against West Indies in 2004 and South Africa amassed 594 the year before but we need a more consistent run of large totals to start risking our hard earned if it's all the same to you, Steve.

With the possibility of players spending much time in the pavilion, the last thing bettors want to feel is a desperation for them to be out there so not to lose money. One of the potential trades could be a sell of the match ton-ups at 63-70 (England team ton-ups are 27-32 and Australia 34-39). There have been 11 centuries in the last five Tests, providing an average make-up of 51. That may seem high but let's not forget that batsmen could be starting and stopping their innings because of the weather, a sure way to upset any potential centurion's rhythm.

Graham Onions is exactly the sort of bowler who could do well

Likewise, all-rounders Mitchell Johnson, whose spot is in doubt, and Andrew Flintoff, could be decent sells on the performance market (1 point per run, 10 for a catch, 20 for a wicket). Johnson is available at 96-104 and with his confidence shot, not to mention a less than intimidating performance make-up average of 113 in two Tests, there could be minimal downside.

With Flintoff we know that he is carrying an injury which could at any time reduce his effectiveness so already there is huge temptation. What would put us off is his record at Edgbaston, which is incredible. His average performance make-up on the ground is a whopping 142. One man who could be too high is Stuart Broad at 74-82. He has averaged a make-up of 69 so far this series. Flintoff, according to Rouse, is not the sort of bowler who will prosper on the sluggish wicket. Apparently it will be bowlers who kiss the surface who will be most dangerous.

Now, buying a bowler on the index (10 points per wicket, 25 bonus for a five-wicket haul) is something of a risk because, just like batsmen, they will be disrupted by stoppages and, obviously, if they are sat in the pavilion with their feet up they can't take wickets.

But Graham Onions is exactly the sort of bowler who should do well. In fact, he has done well at Edgbaston. In June he took nine wickets in a County Championship match to bowl Durham to victory against Warwickshire. He has a strike rate of a wicket every 29 balls in first-class cricket. He looks cheap at 22-27. A more knowledgeable trade might be to sell the bowling indices of spinners Graeme Swann (25-30) and Nathan Hauritz (25-30). On a moist surface and with a wet ball, they will do extremely well to gain turn from the surface.

If you absolutely cannot resist the temptation of getting with an individual batsman, you could do worse than plump for an opening batsman. Of those centuries scored, seven have come from Nos 1-2. Alastair Cook (his runs are available at 67-74) has by far the best average of the four probable openers with a mark of 47 at the ground, Andrew Strauss (72-79) has a horrible record, averaging just 21 while Simon Katich (68-75), in two first-class innings at Edgbaston, has managed only 20 runs. The records of the latter two serve as a reminder that if you bet on runs, you may not feel like a sing-a-long with Bing.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.