South Africa out to maintain momentum
After their 2-0 win in Pakistan, South Africa's confidence is up and it would take a brave man to back against them repeating the scoreline in the two-Test series at home to New Zealand, which begins on Thursday
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After their 2-0 win in Pakistan, South Africa's confidence is up and it would take a brave man to back against them repeating the scoreline in the two-Test series at home to New Zealand, which begins on Thursday.
Click here to bet on South Africa v New Zealand at bet365
South Africa have won six of their past 10 home Tests - and four in their past five - and look to be finding a nice balance between youth and experience, so much so that they have again felt confident enough to leave out Shaun Pollock, their most experienced, and in many eyes, their best bowler.
Pollock, as he was in Pakistan, has been sacrificed in favour of pace as South Africa try to rip through a New Zealand side who, with the exception of the minnows - Bangladesh and Zimbabwe - have won just one Test away from home in this century, and that was against a fading West Indies side.
New Zealand have not even played a Test match for 11 months and though freshness could be a good thing, they look awfully exposed and underdone, especially compared to the South Africans, whose batting line-up looks ready to make stacks of runs and whose attack has the variety needed to break down sides.
Bet365 make New Zealand massive outsiders for the series at 13/2 (7.50) while South Africa are 2/5 (1.40) and the draw is 14/5. Bet365 clearly expect the home side to win both Tests as a 2-0 win is the favourite correct score outcome at 6/4.
A 1-0 win for South Africa is 2/1, while a 1-1 draw is next at 9/2. A 0-0 draw is 9/1 - the same price as a 1-0 win for New Zealand, while a 2-0 whitewash for the tourists is on offer at 20/1, but I honestly wouldn't waste your money if I were you.
New Zealand's problems are likely to be in their batting line-up, which does not look exactly full of runs. Stephen Fleming - having passed the captaincy on to Daniel Vettori, is still a bit too overburdened for my liking and Michael Papps, Scott Styris, Jacob Oram and Craig Cumming have to step up. There is some talent there, but perhaps not enough.
Their bowling also looks light, though Shane Bond will be a handful with his pace, providing he can stay fit. Vettori himself will be the key but it will be interesting to see if his bowling skills are affected by the captaincy.
Kallis the man again
Jacques Kallis dominated the series victory over Pakistan and after a poor one-day series, he will love a return to the Test format where he excels so much. Kallis averages almost 60 against New Zealand, so it's no surprise to see him head and shoulders above the rest of his team in the series batting market.
Bet365 make him 15/8, with captain Graeme Smith a distant second at 10/3 and Herschelle Gibbs next at 9/2. Ashwell Prince is 6/1, Hashim Amla a 13/2 chance, AB De Villiers in there at 15/2, and the ever-impressive Mark Boucher 16/1.
For New Zealand, Fleming, despite a sore thumb after an accident in practice, is the 5/2 favourite. Fleming actually averages 48 in South Africa, a fair way above his overall average, so he is a worthy favourite.
Styris is next at 4/1 with Ross Taylor 5/1, Oram 13/2 and then Cumming, Papps and Lou Vincent all 7/1. Brendon McCullum is available at 11/1 which could be tempting, while Vettori, who can bat very nicely, is 16/1.
First Test
Naturally, given their supremacy in the series betting, South Africa are favourites for the opening Test, which begins in Johannesburg on Thursday.
However, at 8/13 (1.61), to New Zealand's 9/2 and the draw at 12/5, they appear pretty good value. Interestingly, they have lost three of the past four to be played there, but their one win came against New Zealand, and they are in much better form now.
Kallis and Fleming are favourites in their respective markets to top-score in the first innings, but with a lot of pace expected in the wicket I fancy Makhaya Ntini to have a good match. He has taken 45 wickets in eight Tests at the New Wanderers and recorded a five-wicket haul against the New Zealanders in that win in 2006. At 10/1 he could be worth backing to be man of the match.
Cambers' Call
South Africa to win the first Test - 8/13 (1.61) bet365
South Africa to win series 2-0 - 6/4 (2.50)
Makhaya Ntini to win man of the match award in first Test
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.
Simon Cambers is Cricinfo's betting correspondent
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