Sporting cut Pakistan tail

Shabbir Ahmed didn't look like notching up many runs in Multan - so Sporting Index have slashed their prediction of how many the Pakistani tail will score © Getty Images

Pakistan's victory over England in the first Test was a superb result for the home side but the manner of it was not good for anyone who bought either team in Sporting Index's Tails of the Unexpected markets.

As readers of these pages will know, this is one of my favourite markets and buyers made a bundle of cash in the summer Ashes series. However, the lack of runs from the bottom four on either side in Multan means that though England's quote has actually gone up slightly, sellers are the ones who will be happiest going into the second Test in Faisalabad.

Click here to bet on Pakistan v England at bet365

As a reminder, the market awards one point for each run scored by positions 8, 9, 10 and 11 in the respective teams. Having set England at 215-230 for the three-Test series before Multan, Sporting have now raised them to 225-240. That, though, is not enough of a raise for buyers to be able to take some winnings yet.

In 1983/4, the final England make-up was 153, it was 284 in 1987/1988 and in 2000/2001, the most recent tour, it was 198. That works out at an average of 211, or 70 per match - just outside the original quote. Ashley Giles, Steve Harmison, Matthew Hoggard and Shaun Udal filled numbers 8-11 in the opening match and since the bowlers did well, there's no reason to think that England will change it for Faisalabad. The respective Test averages of those four are 10.23, 8.62 and 20.61 while Udal will be playing only his second Test. If we give him an average of 10, and assume that England will bat two full innings in each match, the make-up, on averages alone, would be 288. But they have a long way to go to make that, having made just 82 in Multan.

There has been a big change for Pakistan, however. Initially installed at 230-245, Inzamam-ul-Haq's team are now just 165-180 after they managed just 62 in the first Test. The fact that they managed to win the match with that low a total, batting two full innings, really shows how poor their lower order is.

For the record, in the last series between the two sides in Pakistan, the final total was just 160. In 1987/88, it was 284 and in 1983/84 it was 226. It does not always follow that the team struggling the most will score the most runs at 8, 9, 10 and 11, since the extra confidence and lack of pressure on the lower order sometimes translates into a higher make-up. The only other worry, as always in this market, is that a nightwatchman may be used, which theoretically drops a more capable batsman into the bottom four.

A wide spread...
Of the other markets, the total series wides looks interesting. The two sides sprayed just one wide in the entire match in Multan, yet Sporting still make the total series wides 11-12. Obviously it's easy to imagine four wides coming from a paceman, but 10 over two matches appears to be too high to me. I would be surprised if the two Tests yielded more than eight, given the average for most Tests, and therefore that is a win of twice your stake. And if the second Test is a repeat of the first, then the winnings will be much greater.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

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