Statistics tell the story

We have combined a number of different factors in order to get our own StatsOnSport team rankings for the purposes of this tournament.

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We have concentrated our analysis on a number of areas:

Recent form between the competing nations
Ability to defend and chase totals
Form of players
Experience of squad
ODI rating
Recent form

In the past 20 games for each country against other Champions Trophy teams, Australia have the highest win percentage (we have discounted abandoned games). However, they haven't been as invincible as the media would have us believe, with a 63% win record. Prior to winning the recent DLF Cup in Malaysia, the Aussies were beaten 3-2 by South Africa in March, with the deciding game being the unforgettable run feast, where the home side chased down a then world record score of 434-4 with a ball to spare.

Australia are rightly favourites to win the tournament - they have the best record and have strong tournament form. The main concern over their form would be that over the last ten games they have won just five and lost four (one match abandoned). However, they haven't played their strongest side in every game.

India have the second strongest record over the past 20 matches, although, contrary to the perception of the Australians, they are coming under pressure at home for underperforming in recent matches. The statistics do bear this out to a certain extent with their very recent form being much worse than earlier in the year (W2/L6/NR2 in their last 10 matches), but it is worth highlighting that over the 20 game period we have focused on, India's win percentage is just 7% worse than Australia's.

New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa and Sri Lanka are all around 50%, with New Zealand gaining most of their victories in the past 10 matches. However, whilst both Pakistan and Sri Lanka have had busy international schedules, neither the Black Caps nor the Proteas have played an ODI against a top eight side since March.

South Africa have had arguably the toughest schedule, with nine matches against Australia and four (all away) against India. However, they are just two games behind the Aussies over the 20 match form and almost identical in the last 10 matches.

England, in particular, and the West Indies are the weakest sides on current form. England have had a dismal run recently, winning just four of their last 20 matches against other ICC CT sides, with one other abandoned. The picture is no different in the immediate past and it is hard to be positive about their chances based on their form coming into the tournament.

The Windies are running at 40% in the past 20 games, which goes back as far as May 2005. However, they showed some signs of form in the DLF Cup recently, beating India and Australia in the group stages before collapsing in the final to the Aussies.

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Batting/Fielding First
Several teams in the competition have markedly different records in recent games when they are chasing or defending totals.

For instance, in their last 20 games, Pakistan have won just 25% of matches when they have batted first. However, when chasing a target, they have won 70% of the time. Sri Lanka go the other way. They win 56% of games that they bat first in, compared to 40% when fielding first. Whilst it is hard to factor this into an overall equation of how likely each team is to win the overall competition, it is certainly worth bearing in mind for each individual match, after the toss.

Form of Squad
We have looked at both batting and bowling and ranked each side according to player form in the past 12 months. The categories that we have looked at include runs per match, ability to make centuries and strike rate within batting; wickets per match, economy rate and strike rate for bowling.

The Australians, unsurprisingly, come out on top in both categories and England bring up the rear. Overall, there are a batch of four countries vying for second spot behind Australia - India, Sri Lanka, West Indies and South Africa.

There are some marked differences between a team's batting and bowling ranking, with Sri Lanka's batting far outranking their bowling and Pakistan showing the opposite trend, albeit to a lesser extent. This last difference is also impacted by the absence of Inzamam.

Experience of the Squad and Current ICC ODI Ratings
Most squads have a wealth of experience in this form of cricket now, with the six most experienced players in the Sri Lankan squad holding nearly 1600 ODI caps, more than three times the combined total of the England squad. The ten most experienced players in the tournament average 300 caps each.

Australia are clear at the top in terms of our ratings - see https://www.statsonsport.com/freeview - but there is an even bigger gap between South Africa, in second place, and three countries - Pakistan, India and New Zealand - vying for third. England are well off the pace in eighth and have significantly less experience than all the other sides competing in the tournament.

It is indicative of both their belief in blooding young players and the number of ODIs that they play, that India has the youngest squad and also the second most experienced, behind Sri Lanka.

Australia and South Africa have the oldest sides, but both have impeccable fielding records and we see little downside in respect of this tournament.

Ranking the teams
We have taken all of the data discussed above and given each side a score based on a set of weighted criteria that we believe are relevant to overall success.

The categories we have used are:

ODI rating
Win percentage in last 20 games vs. other ICC CT teams
Win percentage in last 10 games vs. other ICC CT teams
Squad experience
Form of batsmen
Form of bowlers
Strength of schedule over past 20 games

See https://www.statsonsport.com/freeview for the ratings.

Australia are the clear leaders and deserve to be strong favourites for the tournament. They have no obvious weakness and have strength in depth across the squad.

Most markets appear to have discounted South Africa's chances, but we believe this is wrong. We think they have a good chance of winning the tournament and have them as our second favourites behind the Aussies.

Both Sri Lanka and India are clear in the 3rd and 4th places, suggesting that they may be semi finalists (assuming they are not in the same group). Whilst we have got Sri Lanka just ahead of the hosts, home advantage probably makes India's chances that little bit better.

Of the others, Pakistan are strongly fancied in most markets, but we fail to see why. The ball tampering allegations and subsequent suspension of Inzamam has undoubtedly hindered both their preparations and overall chances of success.

England finished bottom in the majority of categories and it is extremely hard to see how they can emerge from a group that also contains Australia and India. A lot of this is priced in, but we wouldn't be tempted by the long odds available.

Visit https://www.statsonsport.com/freeview and find out who we think will be top batsman and bowler.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.