Tails still not wagging

With just one Test to go, anyone who bought either team on Sporting Index's Tails of the Unexpected market will be biting their finger nails over the next few days. Awarding one point for each run scored by positions 8, 9, 10 and 11 in the respective teams, Pakistan's total stands at a paltry 133 while England's is better, but not great, at 173.

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Before the start of the series, Sporting set England at 215-230, and though it's now a little higher at 230-240, that srtill doesn't leave any margin for taking profit before the start of play in Lahore on Tuesday. Of course, buyers could get out now without losing money but it is hardly the margins we saw in the Ashes series in the summer.

Pakistan's price is now just 185-195, and those of you who have watched their tail in the first two Tests will know well that they are no great shakes and that they depend on the top order for runs. In 1983/4, the make-up was 153, it was 284 in 1987/1988 and in 2000/2001, the most recent tour, it was 198. That works out at an average of 211, just outside the original quote.

For Pakistan, their make-up in the last series was just 160. In 1987/88, it was 284 and in 1983/84 it was 226. It does not always follow that the team struggling the most will score the most runs at 8, 9, 10 and 11, since the extra confidence and lack of pressure on the lower order sometimes translates into a higher make-up. The only other worry, as always in this market, is that a nightwatchman may be used, which theoretically drops a more capable batsman into the bottom four.

One other market that we looked at after the first Test was that of the total series wides. After there was just one in Multan, the market looked a little high at 11.5-12.5 and there were only three in Islamabad. There may still be a little room for profit here as Sporting now make the total series wides 8-9 and the way things have gone so far, it would be a surprise to see four or more, so a sell may be a sensible choice.

Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.