Test Status: Kenya's next, but who then?

Kenya is almost certain to be the 11th Test country with Nepal the surprise bolter to become the 12th - that's the most likely outcome following BTTW's look into who will follow Bangladesh on to cricket's most elite stage.

Europe, which boasts four of the five top ranked Associate members, will probably never contribute another Test country, and that tip comes from the countries themselves.

So why would Nepal, yet to make its ICC Trophy debut, leapfrog Associate heavyweights, Scotland, Ireland, Netherlands and Denmark?

Nepal has what any official of those countries will tell you is the essential element necessary to becoming a Test country which they all lack - a 'culture of cricket'.

In the Himalayan Kingdom cricket rivals football as the national sport, has a heritage dating back to the early 1920s and Nepal has the bonus of being strategically situated in South Asia - a geopolitical plus in any vote for Test status.

And according to Cricket Association of Nepal official, Mr. Jai Kumar Shah, that vote will not be far away.

"Within five to 10 years," Mr. Shah predicted.

"We have got everything - the interest of the people, junior development, players, our own headquarters and hard working people."

It's an optimism which contrasts with the outlook of Kenya Cricket Association official, Mr. Robbie Armstrong.

"I think we have some way to go to strengthen the infrastructure," Mr. Armstrong conceded.

"We want to change our league format to give the players more experience at the longer form of the game. When we have a three day game it doesn't draw the crowds. It comes with general education and creating a culture of cricket and that can take a long, long, time," Mr Armstrong explained.

"I wouldn't see us achieving Test status for about five years."

Despite the cautious realism of its officials, Kenya enjoys the vital support where it counts most.

"Kenya will be the most likely Test candidate in my opinion," Dr. Ali Bacher, Chairman of the ICC Development Committee, said this week.

"It will be a question of how they fare in the next few years leading up to the 2003 World Cup from a performance point of view on the field of play.

"Obviously there are other factors - infrastructure, financial resources and do they have an adequate First Class structure etc, etc."

Irish, Dutch and Danish officials concur that even if cricket achieved mainstream acceptance, the sporting cultures of their countries would not support a game lasting five days.

"We could get crowds for one day matches, but there wouldn't be enough for a five day game," Irish Cricket Union President, Mr. John Wright said.

Dutch Cricket Board President, Mr. Rene van Ierschot went further:

"There is too much of an American influence in Holland. There are not many sports in Europe which take five days. It is not feasible to expect to be able to grab people's attention for that long."

Former Derbyshire county pro', Ole Mortensen, agrees.

"Here in Denmark we have made it quite clear that Test status is out of the question," Mortensen said recently.

"People don't have enough time."

And the concept of individual members finding a form of the game which best fits their national sporting psyche is one the ICC appears comfortable with.

"The overwhelming majority of Associated member countries would not aspire to Test Match status," said Dr. Bacher.

"A five day game for example in Holland is a non-event," continued Dr. Bacher, coincidentally echoeing the comments of Mr. Van Ierschot, "and they will acknowledge that."

The man whose name is the one linked most often with globalisation said One Day International status was the way to go for most Associate countries, while accepting it had its limitations.

"At the recent ICC meeting Kenya raised the fact it had played only 12 matches against Full member countries and that is a matter for concern."

Dr. Bacher accepted the benefit of ODI status in procuring tournament invitations may be only as good as the holder's commercial attractiveness, but said there were other more practical reasons why Kenya is not playing as many internationals as other Full Member countries.

"It might be a factor and it is also a factor that a lot of programmes were worked out years ago," added.

While snuffing rumours the ICC was set to grant another Associate ODI status, Dr. Bacher said the performances of the three World Cup qualifiers from next year's ICC Trophy would be monitored.

"Should they be competitive and do reasonably well (at the World Cup), then I'm sure the ICC will look at that situation and see if they can't grant one or two ODI status."