Where does Dhoni's last-over reputation come from?

The only Twenty20 international between England and India in September was the last match of a long tour - India had been thoroughly outplayed in the Tests and England had lost the ODIs. India needed 17 runs off the final over to take the T20.

MS Dhoni was on strike, facing Chris Woakes, and Ambati Rayudu was at the other end. Dhoni began the over with a six, and hit a four later on, but despite having a specialist batsman as a partner, he refused two singles. Dhoni took the burden entirely upon himself and India eventually fell short by three runs.

Opinion was divided on whether Dhoni's tactics of keeping the strike was justified. He has a reputation of thriving in such situations, but should he have trusted his partner more? Since the match was a T20I, the table below lists Dhoni's performances in the final over of a chase in this format.

Dhoni has batted in the last over of five T20I chases and pulled off only one win, when India needed seven runs off six balls, a favourable equation for the batting side. One of the other four games was impossible to win - 38 needed in the last over - and two others were extremely difficult - with 17 and 19 runs required. The other match, against New Zealand, was within reach with only 13 needed, but Dhoni got to face only two balls and scored 5. While Dhoni isn't solely to blame for the defeats, there isn't much in his T20I stats to burnish his image of being a clinical final-over finisher.

Does the reputation come from ODI cricket then? With an average of 53 and a strike rate of 89, Dhoni is certainly one of the most productive players in the 50-over game.

Dhoni has batted in the last over of eight ODI chases and India have won six. Three finishes can be directly credited to Dhoni: against Sri Lanka in the Caribbean, where India needed 15 in the last over, in the Commonwealth Bank series against Australia in 2012, when India had to get 13; and in a bilateral ODI in 2009, against West Indies at St. Lucia, where India needed 11. In the other situation where India needed more than 10 in the last over, against Sri Lanka in 2007, Dhoni was not able to win it.

So in international cricket, there have been seven instances of India needing between 10 and 20 runs in the last over of a chase with Dhoni at the crease, and he has come good thrice. Those numbers aren't convincing enough for a great finisher. That being said, there may be several international games where Dhoni has bailed India out of difficult situations and achieved victory without taking it to the last over, but this article only looks at final-over finishes. The only other form of cricket left to analyse is domestic cricket, or more specifically, the Indian Premier League.

In the IPL, Chennai Super Kings have lost only four of the 13 T20s when Dhoni has batted in the last over of a chase. In three of those four defeats, Super Kings needed 25-plus runs in the last over. In six matches when Super Kings needed between 10 and 20 to win off the last over with their captain batting, Dhoni achieved victory five times. An 83% success rate shows that Dhoni is exceptional in such pressure situations in the IPL. These numbers suggest that Dhoni's reputation as a master of the last over stems from the IPL, rather than international cricket, where the quality of bowling is generally higher and the conditions tougher.