Will Flintoff continue to shine?
The overall outcome of the Super Test has been attracting plenty of interest, but bet365 have put forward some interesting player performance markets for the game
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Click here to bet on the Super Test at bet365
Flintoff, having shaken off the bruised wrist he suffered in the last of the one-day matches in Melbourne, is one of the Rest of the World's big hopes as they look to win the one-off match. And bet365 clearly agree. Awarding one point per run scored, 10 per catch taken, 20 per wicket taken and 25 per stumping, they make him 5/6 (1.83) to get more than 147 points in the match, and the same price to get fewer than 147. If you think that five wickets in the match and 47 runs would do the trick, without needing to take a catch, then that's actually not that much.
In his 52 Tests, Flintoff has made 2641 runs, taken 143 wickets and 34 catches. Taken as an average, that's 50.7 runs, 2.75 wickets and 0.65 catches, figures which would make up at only around 100. However, in his last 20 matches, he has scored more than half of his overall total of runs, taken four wickets per match and a ratio of catches at the same rate. If he repeated those performances, he would be totalling more than 150. Looking at it that way, it's a 50-50 call in my book, which means the bookies have got it right.
Proven Aussie performers
bet365 also appear to have pretty much spot on with Adam Gilchrist, who returned to form with the bat in the one-day series after a poor Ashes performance. The left-hander averages 63 runs per match, almost four catches per game and executes a stumping in about one every two and a half games. The latter statistic could be important at the SCG as you'd expect it to rise if both Warne and Stuart MacGill play. While Warne doesn't get that many stumpings, MacGill, who spins the ball prodigious distances, is more likely to cause stumpings, and Gilchrist keeps superbly to both men.
Warne is rated at 157 by bet365, making the world's leading wicket-taker 5/6 (1.83) to exceed that mark, and the same price not to make it that far. Warne averages 4.86 wickets per match, which makes up at between 80 and 100, while he also averages 21.6 per match with the bat. As one of the best first-slippers around, he also takes almost one catch per game, all of which would make up at around 130, well below the mark. However, in his last 20 matches, Warne averages six wickets per match, 25 runs per match and 1.25 catches per game, which corresponds to a total of around 160.
Kallis averages 110 runs per match in his last 20 Tests, 1.5 wickets per match and one catch per game - a potential total of around 150, all of which makes bet365's price of 5/6 (1.83) to make 119 or more look on the generous side. The bookmakers have probably over-reacted to the South African's poor showings in the one-day matches, but if he is anywhere near his top form, then he should make that target.
Cambers' Call: Jacques Kallis to score 119 points or more on bet365's player performance market
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.
Simon Cambers is Cricinfo's new betting correspondent
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