Will the tails do the expected?
Sporting Index's range of markets provided some of the most interesting, and volatile betting opportunities in the Ashes over the summer and the firm have produced another fine set of opportunities to make a bundle on England's tour of Pakistan, the first
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The market awards one point for each run scored by positions 8, 9, 10 and 11 in the respective teams and Sporting have set England at 215-230 for the three-Test series. As always with a market like this, it is worth looking back at previous series between the two, on Pakistan soil in this case, although it is somewhat distorted by the fact that the past three tours span 21 years and therefore cover vastly different England teams. That said, however, they are still good to know. In 1983/4, the make-up was 153, it was 284 in 1987/1988 and in 2000/2001, the most recent tour, it was 198. That works out at an average of 211, just outside the quote.
Click here to spread bet on Pakistan v England at Sporting Index
It is also important, of course, to know the averages of the likely 8, 9, 10 and 11. Steve Harmison, Matthew Hoggard and Ashley Giles are guaranteed to occupy three of the bottom four places in the batting order, while the final place would appear likely to be taken by Shaun Udal. The respective Test averages of those four are 10.23, 8.62 and 20.61 while Udal will be making his Test debut. If we give him an average of 10, and assume that England will bat two full innings in each match, the make-up, on averages alone, would be 288.
However, the chances England will bat twice, right down the order in each match, are slim. Firstly, they are a superior team, on paper. Second, the nights draw in early in Pakistan and there may well be several early finishes. The heat is another factor. Overs are bowled slowly, the pitches are traditionally slow, and the fact that spin is often the key weapon is also important as very few tail-enders are good players of the turning ball. All that being said, 215-230 looks about right to me.
For Pakistan, Sporting offer a quote of 230-245. In the last series, it was just 160. In 1987/88, it was 284 and in 1983/84 it was 226. It does not always follow that the team struggling the most will score the most runs at 8, 9, 10 and 11, since the extra confidence and lack of pressure on the lower order sometimes translates into a higher make-up. The only other worry, as always in this market, is that a nightwatchman may be used, which theoretically drops a more capable batsman into the bottom four.
Correct scores
Unusually, there seems to be a little disagreement between the spread firms and the fixed odds firms when it comes to the correct-score markets. While bet365 make the 1-1 draw the favourite in the correct score markets, Sporting Index give equal weighting to a 1-0 win to England. All this despite Michael Vaughan's side having struggled with the bat in their opening two matches on tour.
In a market that offers 25 points if you get the series winner correct, and a 50-point bonus if you pick the correct score, an England 1-0 win is rated at 16-19, making it the joint favourite, with the 1-1 draw. The idea here is that if you believe England will win the series 1-0, you will buy at 19, with your maximum win being 75 (the 25 for series victory plus the 50 bonus) minus the 19, (56) times your stake. If, of course, England win the series, but by another score than 1-0, then the make-up would be 25, and you would still win, but only six times your stake. If everything goes wrong, and Pakistan win the series, by any score, the make-up would be zero.
The next favourite is England to win 2-0, at 15-18, while a 2-1 England win and a Pakistan 1-0 win are both 13-16. The 0-0 draw, which has been the result of three of the seven tours to Pakistan, is 9-12, while a Pakistan 3-0 whitewash is 8-11, the rank outsider.
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.
Simon Cambers is Cricinfo's new betting correspondent
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