World Cup 2: the bowling

Apart from Ramesh Powar, it’s difficult to think of anyone else who might have had a claim to the bowling places in India’s World Cup squad. S. Rajesh’s excellent statistical analysis of Shaun Pollock’s recent ODI record on cricinfo.com, has a table listing the best one-day bowling averages since 2006. Powar is number 8 on that list and the highest ranked Indian. He has taken 24 wickets in in sixteen ODIs in this period which compares well with the the bowler on top of the list, Shaun Pollock, who has taken 37 wickets in 24 matches.

To be fair to the selectors, figures don’t always tell you much. The man whose spot Powar might have taken, Irfan Pathan, is tenth on that list with 36 wickets in 25 matches, one less than Pollock with one more match played. And we know that Pollock has hit a rich vein of form in the past year while Pathan’s bowling has fallen away so much that he’s in the World Cup squad as a pinch-hitter who, with luck, might get through half a dozen overs. When he gets to play a World Cup match, Pathan’s more likely to replace an out of form batsman, than a specialist bowler.

Scenario 1: Robin Uthappa doesn’t come off. Tendulkar moves up to open with Ganguly and instead of bringing Karthik in as a specialist batsman, the team management opts for Pathan as a decent outfielder, a more than useful batsman who can play up or down the order, and someone who can smuggle in a few overs through the middle passages of a game.

Scenario 2: Virender Sehwag’s dreadful form continues. Given that India routinely plays six batsmen and four bowlers, Dravid and Chappell decide that Pathan is a better all-round replacement for Sehwag (who usually shares the fifth bowler’s quota with Tendulkar) than Dinesh Karthik.

I think Dravid will be desperate to play Pathan if five of his six main batsmen fire because Pathan playing to seventy five percent of his potential as a bowler would appear to balance the side out. Dravid’s stated preference is to play five bowlers and playing Pathan gives him at least four-and-three-quarters.

If I’m right in this, I can’t see Karthik getting an opportunity except as a replacement for an injured Dhoni or, as a longer shot, if Yuvraj is unfit. Yuvraj doesn’t bowl any more, so Karthik for Yuvraj would be a straightforward batsman for batsman swap with no bowling considerations coming into play.

All of this presumes that the main batsmen do well. If the first couple of games find the battting wobbling, Karthik automatically becomes the favoured replacement.

You don’t have to be an a genius to know that the Indian team will start its campaign with Zaheer Khan Munaf Patel, Ajit Agarkar and Harbhajan Singh. I’m not sure I understand why Harbhajan is an automatic choice for the spinning spot in ODIs but the good thing about having bowlers as good as Sreesanth and Kumble on the bench is that the players they replace in the event of injury or poor form, won’t be hugely missed.

But I’ll miss Powar’s waddle, his fearlessly flighted teasers, those glaring red shades.