Defeat not an option for struggling Capitals and Kings
Capitals' playoffs hopes hang by a thread, while Kings need big wins to improve their net run rate
Ashish Pant
12-May-2023
Big Picture - Kings and Capitals in must-win territory
With five wins and six losses in 11 outings, Punjab Kings have seen more downs than ups so far in IPL 2023 and are currently eighth on the points table. But such is the mid-table logjam that a win in their next outing could potentially catapult them to fifth. Their net run rate, however, is -0.441, the third-worst in the league, so they need big wins in their remaining games to have a genuine chance of making the playoffs.
First up, they will have to get past Delhi Capitals, who are languishing at the bottom of the points table and have their playoffs chances hanging by a thread. Capitals are on eight points from 11 games, and to make it to the top four, they not only have to win all their remaining games but will also require other results to go their way. A loss will bring the curtains down on their IPL 2023 campaign.
The two teams are yet to face off this season, and there is not much to separate between them as far as the head-to-head record goes. They have met 30 times in the IPL and have won 15 games each. Capitals have, however, won the last four encounters between these sides.
Kings have been better travellers this year, having won four of their six away or neutral games, and will hope for this trend to continue. They might want to sort out their top order, though. While Shikhar Dhawan, who returns to his home ground, where he has a stellar IPL record, has shown consistency, his opening partner Prabhsimran Singh has blown hot and cold. They also do not have a settled batter at No.3. Kings brought back Bhanuka Rajapaksa for their last game, but he failed to make much of an impact. Their middle order has shouldered most of the run-scoring responsibility this season, but in Delhi, where the pitches have been among the slowest-scoring in the tournament, Kings will want their top three to fire.
Capitals return home after a loss in Chennai. They bounced back well after five successive losses to start their tournament but have failed to put up a collective display or, for that matter, a settled team. The two spinners, Axar Patel and Kuldeep Yadav, have been their only shining lights this season, and Capitals will hope they can tie up Kings' power-packed middle order.
Teams batting second have won four of the five games this year in Delhi, so the toss could be a factor.
Team news - Kagiso Rabada for Sam Curran?
Capitals have lately picked four overseas top-order batters - of whom Mitchell Marsh offers a bowling option - and fielded an all-Indian bowling attack. Batting was Capitals' weaker front through the first half of the season, and with David Warner, Phil Salt, Marsh and Rilee Rossouw doing well, they'll likely stick with that overseas combination, especially with Anrich Nortje having travelled back to South Africa for personal reasons.
Kings do not have any injury concerns, but Sam Curran's form with the ball might be an issue. He has gone in excess of 11 runs an over in the last five games and has only picked up seven wickets in 11 outings, with an overall economy rate of 10.28. Kings could consider bringing in Kagiso Rabada for Curran to beef up the bowling attack, though that would compromise their batting depth. They might also get Matthew Short in for Rajapaksa at No. 3.
Form Guide
Delhi Capitals: LWWLW (last five matches, most recent first)
Punjab Kings: LLWLW
Impact Player Strategy
Delhi Capitals
Manish Pandey and Khaleel Ahmed are likely to remain Capitals' batting and bowling Impact Subs, respectively.
Probable XII: 1 David Warner (capt), 2 Phil Salt (wk), 3 Mitchell Marsh, 4 Manish Pandey, 5 Rilee Rossouw, 6 Axar Patel, 7 Aman Hakim Khan, 8 Lalit Yadav, 9 Ripal Patel, 10 Kuldeep Yadav, 11 Ishant Sharma, 12 Khaleel Ahmed
Punjab Kings
Kings went with three overseas players in their starting XI in their last game, with Nathan Ellis coming in for Rajapaksa in the second innings. They could retain a similar pattern in the next game. If not, it is likely Prabhsimran Singh swaps with a bowler, as has been the case for most of their games this season.
Kings went with three overseas players in their starting XI in their last game, with Nathan Ellis coming in for Rajapaksa in the second innings. They could retain a similar pattern in the next game. If not, it is likely Prabhsimran Singh swaps with a bowler, as has been the case for most of their games this season.
Probable XII: 1 Prabhsimran Singh, 2 Shikhar Dhawan (capt), 3 Bhanuka Rajapaksa/Matthew Short, 4 Liam Livingstone, 5 Jitesh Sharma (wk), 6 M Shahrukh Khan, 7 Harpreet Brar, 8 Rishi Dhawan, 9 Sam Curran/Kagiso Rabada, 10 Rahul Chahar, 11 Arshdeep Singh, 12 Nathan Ellis
Numbers that matter
- Warner has fallen to Rabada five times in 14 T20 innings but has a strike rate of 149 against him.
- The Capitals captain enjoys batting against Rahul Chahar. He has hit him for 61 runs in 34 balls and has a strike rate of 179.41.
- Dhawan has fallen to Kuldeep twice in six innings and strikes at only 91.89 against him.
- Rossouw has fallen to Arshdeep Singh three times in three T20 innings and is yet to score against him.
- Kings' batters have the second-best run rate in overs 16 to 20 in IPL 2023 - 11.65 - behind Gujarat Titans.
- On the flip side, Kings bowlers have the second-worst economy rate from overs 16 to 20 - 11.20. They are only behind Mumbai Indians.
Pitch and conditions
Delhi is one of only three venues this season, along with Lucknow and Guwahati, that are yet to produce a 200-plus total. While conditions in Delhi have not been as bowler-friendly as those in Lucknow, where teams have scored at an average run rate of 7.10, they haven't been the most batter-friendly either. Only Lucknow, Hyderabad and Chennai have produced a lower run rate than Delhi's 8.65 so far.
The Big Question
Should Kagiso Rabada replace Sam Curran in the Kings line up?
1.5K votesYes
No
Ashish Pant is a sub-editor with ESPNcricinfo