Adverse venue awaits shaky hosts

Match facts

June 25-29, 2015
Start time 1000 local (0430 GMT)

Big Picture

If there is a home venue Sri Lanka would prefer not to head to after a loss, it would be the P Sara Oval in Colombo. There is typically extra bounce on the surface, and a little help for seamers. On each of the last three occasions Sri Lanka have played here, they have lost. The only difference is that in those series, they had arrived with a 1-0 lead, secured in Galle.

Sri Lanka's Galle tormentor Yasir Shah may not be a menace until later in the match, but the prospect of Wahab Riaz hurling balls at helmets on the most reliable result pitch in South Asia is thrilling for all but the hosts' batsmen. Suranga Lakmal may generate seam and carry here for Sri Lanka too, but the variety of Pakistan's attack gives them an edge. In mitigation, Sri Lanka possess the most successful batsman at P Sara: Kumar Sangakkara has 821 runs here, at an average of 54.73.

For so long Pakistan had outgunned Sri Lanka only in the bowling, but at present, the batting orders seem almost even. Pakistan are famously brittle - maybe less so in the past year - but since Mahela Jayawardene's retirement, Sri Lanka have been soft too. Sarfraz Ahmed's sublime form in the lower-middle order will have Pakistan in good spirits, while Angelo Mathews' descent from the peaks he scaled in 2014 might concern Sri Lanka. In Mathews and Dinesh Chandimal, Sri Lanka have two outstanding players of pace who have hurt Pakistan in combination before. Their challenge will be to rediscover that capacity despite the myriad disappointments of 2015 so far.

Aside from possibly playing an extra seamer in place of Zulfiqar Babar if the pitch calls for a pace-heavy attack, Pakistan are simply seeking more of the same. At times it has seemed inconceivable they could produce two similar performances on the trot. Under their winning-est Test captain however, they are skirting consistency.

Form guide

(last five matches, most recent first)

 Sri Lanka: LLLWW
Pakistan: WWDLD

In the spotlight

Dimuth Karunaratne, who swishes his bat like a rapier in the first innings, has built up a small store of second-innings scores to suggest he is a more substantial batsman than his record so far suggests. Paired with Kaushal Silva's dour defence, Karunaratne is expected to keep the scoreboard moving. Yet his best innings at the top level have come when he is attempting to save a Test. His coaches will no doubt have noted this. Maybe he will continue to trade in a little flair for a few more runs.

Junaid Khan was the only weak link Pakistan had in Galle. He might have bowled some good overs in patches but overall looked ineffective. Since his rehabilitation from injury after the World Cup, he has reduced his pace and struggled to generate seam movement. He may or may not be dropped for the second Test but is surely under immense pressure to contribute. "We still have confidence in him. We will see if there is any need of a change but it will mainly be based on a tactical move," Misbah-ul-Haq said.

Teams news

Dhammika Prasad suffered a blow to his right thumb in training, which puts him in doubt for the match. Lakmal appears to have adequately recovered from a groin strain, however. Dilruwan Perera, who needed nine stitches after ripping the webbing of his left hand, will not be considered for this match, which presents an opportunity for either spinner Tharindu Kaushal or seamer Dushmantha Chameera, depending on how pace-heavy the attack needs to be. Kithuruwan Vithanage's hold on the No. 7 spot is also shaky.

Sri Lanka (probable) 1 Kaushal Silva, 2 Dimuth Karunaratne, 3 Kumar Sangakkara, 4 Lahiru Thirimanne, 5 Angelo Mathews (capt.), 6 Dinesh Chandimal (wk), 7 Kusal Perera, 8 Dhammika Prasad/Nuwan Pradeep, 9 Tharindu Kaushal, 10 Rangana Herath, 11 Suranga Lakmal

The only bad news for Pakistan is that middle-order batsman Haris Sohail will proceed back to Lahore after having injured his patella tendon during a fielding drill in Galle. The rest of the squad looked fit.

Pakistan (probable) 1 Mohammad Hafeez, 2 Ahmed Shahzad, 3 Azhar Ali, 4 Younis Khan, 5 Misbah-ul-Haq (capt.), 6 Asad Shafiq, 7 Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), 8 Wahab Riaz, 9 Yasir Shah, 10 Zulfiqar Babar, 11 Junaid Khan/Imran Khan

Pitch and conditions

A day out from the Test, the pitch appeared to have a smidgen of live grass, which suggests the seamers will enjoy it as usual. There is rain forecast for most afternoons, but the past few Colombo days have been bright and sunny.

Stats and trivia

• The P Sara Oval is the most reliable result venue in South Asia over the past 20 years. Each of the last eight Tests at the venue led to results, and only one of the past 12 matches has ended in a draw
• Mohammad Hafeez needs 80 to reach 3000 career runs
• This is most likely Kumar Sangakkara's last Test against his favourite top-eight opponent. He averages 77.75 against Pakistan