India and New Zealand in must-win territory with rain in the Navi Mumbai air

The pressure on India is higher than ever. Three successive losses in matches they could have won, mounting criticism, and five games in, they are still tinkering with combinations. But they now return to Navi Mumbai, a venue many in the squad know well through T20Is and the WPL, needing just a win against New Zealand to reach the semi-finals.

New Zealand haven't had it easy either. Their last two matches were washed out, and qualification now requires them to win both remaining games, against India and England. It's a tougher ask, but not beyond a side that just celebrated the first anniversary of their T20 World Cup win, where they beat India in the opening match. They have won 34 out of the 57 ODIs against India, including six of their last nine encounters since 2022.

Their campaign this time started with heavy defeats to Australia and South Africa, before they bounced back against Bangladesh. But they remain over-reliant on Sophie Devine with the bat, and their thin spin attack - with just Amelia Kerr and Eden Carson - has had limited impact on slower pitches.

India, on the other hand, have had different contributors in every game but haven't settled on a clear first-choice XI. After four matches with five bowlers, they dropped Jemimah Rodrigues to play an extra bowler against England. The move did seem to work as England were kept to 288 for 8 after a strong start, but India's batting faltered under pressure in the chase, which has been a familiar story. They will want to address that.

The weather could, however, have a say. Devine called the washouts in Colombo "frustrating", and the forecast for Thursday isn't encouraging either. Rain hit Navi Mumbai for over two hours in the evening two days before the match, cancelling India's training session. A washout, however, would favour India, considering New Zealand have a tougher opponent in England to face in their last game, and just haven't been able to get any sort of momentum going.

Form guide

India LLLWW (last few completed matches, most recent first)
New Zealand WLLWW

After a promising start to the tournament, India's young pacer Kranti Gaud has hit a bit of a bump. Her early spells, full of discipline and pinpoint yorkers, have been impressive, but her death bowling has come under the scanner. Against South Africa, she opened with a tidy 1 for 19 in five overs, only to concede 40 off her final four. She went wicketless in the last two games, conceding 73 runs off nine overs against Australia and 46 off eight against England. On a Navi Mumbai surface expected to be more batter-friendly, Gaud will need to recalibrate quickly if India are to keep New Zealand quiet.

New Zealand are still waiting for their openers to turn up. Suzie Bates and Georgia Plimmer have endured a poor run - their partnership average of 10.66 is the second-worst among all teams this tournament. Bates followed two ducks with a 29 (run out) against Bangladesh, while Plimmer has managed just 35 runs across three games, struggling for fluency throughout. A more batting-friendly pitch probably awaits them at the DY Patil Stadium, where they will hope to give their side a strong start.

Will India revert to five bowlers for the crucial fixture? While their bowlers pulled things back well in the last ten overs against England, India might think they need the experience of Rodrigues at No. 5.

India (possible): 1 Smriti Mandhana, 2 Pratika Rawal, 3 Harleen Deol, 4 Harmanpreet Kaur (capt), 5 Richa Ghosh (wk), 6 Amanjot Kaur, 7 Sneh Rana, 8 Deepti Sharma, 9 Renuka Singh/Jemimah Rodrigues, 10 Kranti Gaud, 11 Shree Charani

New Zealand had kept their senior pacer Lea Tahuhu out tactically in the match against Sri Lanka, but brought her back in for the Pakistan game. They are likely to stay with the same XI.

New Zealand (possible): 1 Suzie Bates, 2 Georgia Plimmer, 3 Amelia Kerr, 4 Sophie Devine (capt), 5 Brooke Halliday, 6 Maddy Green, 7 Isabella Gaze (wk), 8 Jess Kerr, 9 Rosemary Mair, 10 Eden Carson, 11 Lea Tahuhu

While the Navi Mumbai pitch didn't seem to offer much for bowlers in the last match, Sri Lanka could post only 202 after opting to bat against Bangladesh. Chamari Athapaththu had said that there was some dew in the second half. There has been some unseasonal rain in Mumbai, and an interruption is likely on Thursday too. It's expected to be hazy in the afternoon, with a chance of rain in the evening.

Stats and trivia

• India have their poorest win-loss ratio for any team in ODI World Cups against New Zealand
• Bates is 67 runs away from becoming the second-leading run-scorer in ODIs. She needs 75 runs to complete 6000 runs in the format.
• Tahuhu will be playing her 200th international match.
• India have played eight T20Is at the DY Patil Stadium, winning four including one in a Super Over against Australia.