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Kamran Abbasi

Brave or bonkers? Afridi revives Pakistan

It would be daft to pretend that Pakistan deserve to be semi-finalists

Kamran Abbasi
Kamran Abbasi
25-Feb-2013
"Afridi has generally gone with his heart - a more natural method for his captaincy" © AFP
Pakistan might not win this World Cup but this day in May will become legend in the history of Pakistan cricket. Improbable odds of qualification for the semi-finals were lengthened when Shahid Afridi announced his team. Khalid Latif in, Mohammad Sami out. A batsman for a bowler, leaving one genuine pace bowler in the starting XI. Brave or bonkers? It was a gamble that convulsed Pakistan fans. It turned out to be a stroke of genius.
When Latif played a lame stroke to end his innings, Pakistan's innings was a mess, South Africa were rampant. Contests between Pakistan and South Africa are always visually fascinating. In the flesh, the South Africans are gigantic, each man several times thicker in stature than his Pakistani opponent. Yet for the second World Cup running, the wiry frames of Pakistan's players were controlled by cooler nerves.
The revival by the Akmal brothers and Pakistan's captain was thrilling enough. But the bowling performance, supported by another efficient fielding display, was exceptional. Saeed Ajmal and Afridi rejoined their compelling Twenty20 partnership, with Ajmal possibly producing the spell of the tournament. In the field, Afridi was passionate, encouraging, and foul-mouthed. An ideal combination for a Pakistan captain.
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Lies, damned lies, and Duckworth Lewis

Was Paul Collingwood right to question the target set for West Indies by the Duckworth Lewis Method

Kamran Abbasi
Kamran Abbasi
25-Feb-2013
Was Paul Collingwood right to question the target set for West Indies by the Duckworth Lewis Method? I believe he was right, and it was disappointing that Frank Duckworth dismissed his concerns so readily. Statisticians, and I work with many, have their preferred methods but the best statisticians will always accept that each method has its flaws. Show me a statistician whose first answer to a statistical question is 'it depends . . .' and I'll show you a statistician with wisdom.
Here's why Collingwood has three arguments in his favour:
1 The statistical argument: The higher number of data points available, the more reliable any statistical estimate. With only 14 balls bowled by England before the rain set in, the sample was too small to reliably estimate the trajectory of the West Indian innings. Duckworth's argument that those fourteen balls dictated the target exposes the unsuitability of the Duckworth Lewis Method when only a small proportion of an innings, around 10% in this case, has been completed. In this circumstance, there are insufficient data points (balls bowled) to reasonably predict the trajectory of an innings.
A fairer approach would be to set a minimum number of overs before wickets lost are taken into consideration. For example, if that minimum number of overs in T20 were 5 overs (ie 25% of the innings completed), the wickets West Indies had lost in those 14 balls would be irrelevant. The target set would assume that no balls had been bowled. The West Indian target should then have been higher. After 5 overs, and only after 5 overs, the runs already scored and wickets already lost would be taken into account. A more suitable minimum number of overs might in fact be 8 or 10 overs.
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