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General

Markets

Sporting Index's guide to spread markets

16-Feb-2009
#1 Individual Batsman Series Runs
This market allows you to be with or against a individual batsmen throughout a Test series. If you believe someone will score more runs than our prediction you buy (go high) at the higher level of our prediction. If you think an individual will struggle and make fewer runs than our projection you sell (go low) at the lower level of the prediction.
Here's an example. In a typical three match Test Series, we might predict that Ian Bell will score 200-210 runs. If you believed Bell would score more than that in the three matches you might bet high at 210 for the stake of your choice, in this case, say £2 a run. If Bell notches up innings of 46, 59, 21, 23, 0 and 101 in the three Tests, his total runs would have added up to 250. Had you gone high at 210 you would have made 40 times your stake: (250 - 210) x your stake = 40 x £2 = £80. But if he had only managed a total of 180 runs, the same bet would have lost you 30 times your stake: (180 - 210) x your stake = -30 x £2 = -£60.
#2 Individual Bowler Series Wickets
This is a market predicting the number of wickets an individual bowler will take in a series.
We might reckon that Monty Panesar would take 18 wickets in a five-match Test series against the Australians. As a result our prediction would be 17-19. If you believed he would struggle to take wickets, you would bet low at 17 for the stake of your choice, in this case, say £5 a wicket. Had Monty tormented the Aussies for the 5 games and taken 5, 8, 3, 5 and 2 wickets respectively, his series total would have been 23. Had you gone low at 17 you would have lost 6 times your stake of £5: (17 - 23) x your stake = -6 x £5 = -£30. However, had you gone high at 19 you would have won 4 times your stake: (23 -19) x your stake = 4 x £5 = £20.
#3 Highest Innings Score and Lowest Innings Score
These two markets are based on the highest/lowest number of runs either side will score in an innings during the course of a Test Series.
Let's look at an illustration. At the start of an England v West Indies Test series, we might reckon that the highest innings score would be 480 and therefore set our spread at 470-490. If you believed that the majority of pitches would be batsmen friendly, you would bet high at 490 for the stake of your choice, in this case perhaps £2 a run.
If England notched 530 in the first Test and this had proved to be the highest total of the series, this bet would have rewarded you with 40 times your stake: (530 - 490) x your stake = 40 x £2 = £80. However, had the batsmen struggled throughout the series and the highest total only been 440, you would have lost 50 times your stake. 440 - 490 x your stake = -50 x £2 = -£100.
The same principle applies for lowest innings score.
#4 In-play Win Index
This market awards 25 points to the winning team of a test match, 10 points to both teams for a draw and 0 points for a loss. You can bet on either team to perform better or worse than our prediction. This market is updated as the match progresses.
For example at the start of a Test match between England and New Zealand, we might price England at 16-17.5 on the Win Index. Put another way we have them as strong favourites to win the match.
If you thought England could justify this favouritism you would bet high at 17.5 for your chosen stake, in this case, £10 a point. If England confirmed your view and went on to win the match they would have been awarded 25 points and New Zealand 0 points. Had you gone high at 17.5 you would have made 7.5 times your stake: (25 - 17.5) x your stake = 7.5 x £10 = £75. However had you gone low on England at 16 then you would have lost 9 times your stake: (16 - 25) x your stake = 9 x £10 = -£90.
New Zealand, on the other hand, might have been priced at 5-6.5 at the start of the same Test. If you had gone high at 6.5 it would be important to note that both a draw and a New Zealand win would be profitable for you.
#5 Total Runs in an Innings
This market based around the prediction of the number of runs each side will score in an individual innings.
Say England win the toss and elect to bat at the Oval. We might forecast the total number of runs they score as 320, and as a result our prediction would be 315-325. If you believed that England would score heavily, you would bet high on their first innings score at 325 for your chosen stake, in this case, you plump for £2 a run. If England had scored 405 in their first innings, you would have won 80 times your stake: (405 - 325) x your stake = 80 x 2 = £160. But if you thought England would have another one of their spectacular collapses you might bet low at 315. In this case England's first innings score would have lost 90 times your stake: (405 - 315) x your stake = 90 x £2 = -£180. #6 Individual Batsman's Runs in an Innings
During the course of an innings we will predict the number of runs a batsman will score.
Here's an example. As Kevin Peterson walks to the wicket we might be predicting he will score 30-34 runs. If you thought he was in good form you would bet high at 34 for your chosen stake, in this case, £5 a run. Had Peterson scored 52 you would have made 18 times your stake: (52 - 34) x your stake = 18 x £5 = £90.
But if he had struggled and eventually been dismissed for 16, you would have lost 18 times your stake: (16 - 34) x your stake = -18 x £5 = -£90.
#7 Fall of Next Wicket
This market gives you the opportunity to challenge our prediction of the score when the next wicket falls.
Here's an illustration. With England at 70 for 2 on a seaming pitch, we might forecast that the fall of the next wicket will be approximately 30 runs later. As a result our prediction would have been 98 - 102.
If you believed England would consolidate and build a decent third wicket partnership, you would bet high (buy) at 102 runs, for the stake of your choice, say £5 a run. However, if England lost their third wicket the very next ball with the score still on 70. So, if you had gone high at 102, you would have lost 32 times your stake: (70 - 102) x your stake = -32 x £5 = -£160. On the other hand had England put on 62 for the third wicket, you would have made 30 times your stake: (132 - 102) x your stake = 30 x £5 = £150.
#8 Session Runs
For this market we predict the number of runs that will be scored in each session of a typical Test Match.
Take an example of the opening day of a Test between England and Sri Lanka. We might predict that 78 - 82 runs will be scored in the second session of play (Lunch until Tea). With the lunchtime score at 70 for 1 and the weather set fair, you may believe that batting would become easier in the second session, so might bet high at 82, for the stake of your choice, in this case, £5 a run.
If 102 runs were scored in the second session you would have been proved right. Had you gone high at 82 you would have won 20 times your stake: (102 - 82) x your stake, 20 x 5 = £100. However, had a couple of wickets fallen and only 70 runs been scored in the 2nd session, you would have lost 12 times your stake: (70 - 82 x your stake = -12 x £5 = -£60.