Bond holds the key to New Zealand's chances

With both teams already in the semi-finals, and Australia almost certain to finish as the top team in the Super Eights, there's little at stake when the two teams meet in Grenada. Except that Ricky Ponting probably won't feel that way, after his team was tripped three times in a row during the Chappell-Hadlee Series just before the World Cup. Stephen Fleming has already stated he has no intention of taking his foot off the gas: "We want to continue where we left off against Australia in New Zealand. They're a tough side if they get on top of you and they've got a point to prove." Expect no freebies from him either.

Australia have a huge 75-30 lead in the 108 ODIs the two teams have played, but only have a 6-4 edge in the last ten. There has been little to separate the two teams recently, but the overall numbers look good for Australia. Not only have they won a huge majority of the ODIs against New Zealand, their current batsmen also have excellent records against them - Adam Gilchrist is the only batsman who averages in the early 30s, but he makes up by scoring at a run a ball.

New Zealand's batsmen, in contrast, have struggled a lot more against the Australians. Ross Taylor and Peter Fulton, the new kids on the block, have done well against them, but among the rest, the lower-middle order have better stats than the specialist batsmen: Brendon McCullum and Jacob Oram average more than Fleming, McMillan and Styris, which suggests Oram's absence, through a heel injury, could really hurt New Zealand. Scott Styris's numbers are particularly shocking - in 24 games he has an abysmal average of 16.85. He has been in a rich vein of form in this tournament, though, and there is no better time for him to correct those stats.

Among the Australian bowlers, Glenn McGrath has historically been a handful for New Zealand - as he has for most opposition teams - but Nathan Bracken and Brad Hogg, two others who have had outstanding tournaments so far, haven't done as well against them.

New Zealand will clearly look to Shane Bond to provide them the bowling firepower. His stats against Australia are outstanding, with an average of three wickets per match, and 18 deliveries per wicket. The support cast, however, has been pretty ordinary. Oram has been completely toothless, while Daniel Vettori has been economical without being penetrative. If they see Bond off, Australia's batsmen probably won't be too worried about the rest.

Bond has been exceptional not only for his wicket-taking ability, but also for his ability to nail the big players. The table below lists his record against each Australian batsman, and it's quite flawless - he has dismissed Ponting six times at just over seven runs per dismissal. Hayden and Hussey have done better, but even they have struggled to get him away for runs, scoring at less than three per over against him.