England's luck could be in

The ease with which an in-form Australia swept aside a healthy New Zealand to set up a mouthwatering semi-final against England should strike terror into Michael Vaughan and his side ahead of Tuesday's semi-final at Edgbaston. But Australia - who, let's face it, always seem to be in fighting form - must slip up eventually, and in a one-off match, anything could happen.

And why should it not be England who halt the Aussie juggernaut at Edgbaston on Tuesday? After all, they will enjoy home advantage, and if Vaughan were to win the toss (a crucial factor in late September) and choose to field, he would greatly increase England's chances of winning.

On the back of a successful Test year, England's one-day team are coming into their own - they routed India in the NatWest Challenge in early September, and brushed aside their opposition in the pool stages of the Champions Trophy - and they may have timed their peak to perfection. But to end their miserable record of 14 consecutive losses against a buoyant Australia, a run which started way back in January 1999, Vaughan must look to his allrounders Andrew Flintoff and Paul Collingwood, in particular, to continue to produce the goods.

Collingwood has been enjoying a good Champions Trophy with the bat. He struck an unbeaten 80 against Zimbabwe, and 39 in England's washed-out game against Sri Lanka, following up his 79 against India in the NatWest Challenge.

In Flintoff, England have a genuine matchwinner, as so brutally demonstrated against Sri Lanka, where he thumped a punishing century to turn the game. Flintoff is in form and confident, and Adam Gilchrist admitted that the Australians would look to attack him. He said: "You've got to focus on Flintoff but we have to get to him first.

"We also don't know that much about Vikram Solanki or Andrew Strauss, so we have to get down to Flintoff and once he comes in obviously try and do something to knock him over," he added. "He's just got so much momentum at the moment it's going to be a real challenge."

But England, who will probably be unchanged from the team which beat Sri Lanka, are reliant on two or three batsmen. Vaughan himself is having a shocking run of form, with the exception of a sparkling 74 against India in the NatWest Challenge. But a true captain's innings in a crucial clash is well overdue. Strauss, who has 508 one-day runs at an average of just over 39, with one hundred and three fifties, is also due a score as he has failed to deliver a significant performance in this competition.

Darren Gough embodied the current positive spirit coursing through the England side, and he was typically upbeat about their chances, saying: "We're all looking forward to it. We're not worried about it but we're excited about it."

Gough did, however, concede that Australia were the favourites. "They're the best side," he said. "Everybody wants to play against them, and everybody wants to beat them and we'll be trying."

But the sheer depth of quality in the Australian side means that the slightest slip-up will invite disaster. Andrew Symonds can match Flintoff blow for blow in the power-hitting stakes, while Michael Kasprowicz is in the form of his life, and like Andy Bichel in last year's World Cup, he adds some blue-collar gravitas to a star-studded line-up.

And in the middle of the pack, the little-and-large pairing of Darren Lehmann and Michael Clarke have yet to take centre stage in this tournament. Australia have been so dominant in their opening-round matches, against USA and New Zealand, that neither man, nor the budding allrounder Shane Watson, has been called upon to bat. England will recall with trepidation their experience last year, when Australia eased to a two-wicket victory after all had seemed lost. Theirs is a side that never knows when it is beaten

Australia's allround game is exceptional, and their ground fielding is as well drilled as a Russian oilfield. But could tomorrow be the day when England's numbers finally come up against Australia? Maybe, just maybe.

England (probable) 1 Marcus Trescothick, 2 Vikram Solanki, 3 Michael Vaughan (capt), 4 Andrew Strauss, 5 Andrew Flintoff, 6 Paul Collingwood, 7 Geraint Jones (wk), 8 Ashley Giles, 9 Alex Wharf, 10 Darren Gough, 11 Stephen Harmison.

Australia (probable) 1 Adam Gilchrist (wk), 2 Matthew Hayden, 3 Ricky Ponting (capt), 4 Damien Martyn, 5 Andrew Symonds, 6 Darren Lehmann, 7 Michael Clarke, 8 Michael Kasprowicz, 9 Shane Watson, 10 Jason Gillespie, 11 Glenn McGrath.