While Sri Lanka are third, their points percentage of 54.17 needs to improve for them to be contenders. They have four Tests remaining - two at home against Pakistan beginning July 16 and two in New Zealand - the defending champions who are out of the running this time - next year. They need to blank Pakistan 2-0 to be in with a serious chance and would still have to win a Test in New Zealand to take their points percentage to 61.11, which may be enough to qualify if other results go their way. South Africa, currently No. 1, have 71.43, while Australia are on 70.
The loss in Galle was Australia's first of this WTC cycle and pushed them to second, behind South Africa. They are still in a strong position. If they win all five of their remaining home Tests - two against West Indies and three against South Africa - they will finish with a points percentage of almost 65 regardless of the result in the four-Test series in India next year. If they lose a Test at home, they will need to win one in India to get to 65 percentage points.
As mentioned, Sri Lanka need a 2-0 win to stay in the hunt. For Pakistan, currently fourth in the table, a 2-0 win would improve their points percentage to 62.96. They would then need to win three and draw two of their five home Tests - three against England, two against New Zealand - to finish above 65 percentage points. If they draw 1-1 against Sri Lanka, they would need to win four home Tests, while losing 0-2 would leave them with no room for error at home.
The series, starting August 17, is a big one for table-toppers South Africa, who also travel to Australia in December. A 2-1 victory would leave them on a points percentage of 70, meaning even a 1-2 series loss in Australia would still allow them to finish above 65 percentage points as long as they win both home Tests against West Indies. A series loss for South Africa would leave them needing to win 2-1 in Australia to finish above 65 percentage points.
While India, runners-up in the last WTC final, have slipped to fifth in the table, they will start favourites in the fixtures left in their cycle - a two-Test series in Bangladesh followed by four home Tests against Australia. Winning all six Tests would give India a points percentage of 68.05, which should be enough to make the final. If they lose one out of six, they would finish on 62.50 and would need other results to go their way.
Dustin Silgardo is an assistant editor at ESPNcricinfo