IPL playoffs: Can Mumbai Indians finish in the top two?

The race to the IPL 2025 playoffs is over but the four teams that have made it - Gujarat Titans (GT), Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB), Punjab Kings (PBKS) and Mumbai Indians (MI) - are now competing to finish Nos. 1 and 2 in the points table.

The teams that finish in the top two play each other in Qualifier 1 on May 29 and the winner of that match goes straight through to the final. The loser of Qualifier 1 gets a second chance to make the final by playing Qualifier 2 against the winner of the Eliminator, which is a knockout match between the teams that finish Nos. 3 and 4 in the points table.

Gujarat Titans (Points: 18, net run-rate: 0.795) Remaining games: vs LSG (Ahmedabad), vs CSK (Ahmedabad)

GT are on top of the table with the most points and the second-best net run rate.

If they win their remaining two games, they will finish at No. 1 with 22 points. No one can overtake that tally. If they win only one of their remaining games and end on 20 points, they could finish outside the top two if RCB and PBKS win both their remaining games and move to 21 points each.

Even if GT lose both their remaining games and stay on 18 points, they could still finish in the top two if RCB lose their last two matches and PBKS beat MI, or if RCB and PBKS lose both their remaining matches.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru (Points: 17, net run-rate: 0.482) Remaining games: vs SRH (Lucknow), vs LSG (Lucknow)

Punjab Kings (Points: 17, net run-rate: 0.389) Remaining games: vs DC (Jaipur), vs MI (Jaipur)

RCB and PBKS are both on 17 points with little separating them in terms of net run rate and two games each to go.

If GT win both their games, then only one of RCB or PBKS can finish in the top two. RCB do seem to have the easier fixtures, against SRH and LSG, as opposed to PBKS who play DC and MI.

If GT win one and lose one, then RCB and PBKS could finish in the top two if they win their last two matches.

If GT lose both games, then RCB and PBKS could finish Nos. 1 and 2 if they win one of their remaining two games.

If RCB lose both remaining games, they cannot finish in the top two because GT are already ahead of them on points, and they will be overtaken by one of PBKS or MI, who play each other.

If PBKS lose both remaining games, they will be overtaken by MI on points, while GT are already ahead of them.

Mumbai Indians (Points: 16, net run-rate: 1.292) Remaining games: vs PBKS (Jaipur)

MI's chances of finishing in the top two are not in their hands. By the time they play their last league game, against PBKS on May 26, all three of GT, RCB and PBKS might already be out of their reach.

MI's only chance of finishing in the top two is if no more than one of the other three teams get more than 18 points, and for them to beat PBKS to also get to 18 points.