NatWest Challenge braced for impact of rule changes

Sporting Index are the kings of innovation when it comes to cricket spread betting and they will be producing a host of interesting markets on the Ashes later this summer. Before that though, they have unveiled a selection of offers on the NatWest Challenge between England and Australia, which starts at Headingley on Thursday.

Fixed odds favourites to take the three-match series, Australia also dominate the outright markets with Sporting making them 5-8 favourites to come out on top, with 10 points awarded for winning the series, and five points per match won by. Therefore, a 3-0 Australia win would result in a make-up of 25, while a 2-1 win would be 20. Conversely, a 2-1 England win would make up at -15, and a 3-0 win would be -25 points. England won 3-0 in 1997, but Australia triumphed by the same score in 1993 and 2001.

There are markets on the number of total ducks in the series and total run-outs, while an interesting one is the number of wides in the three matches, which is set at 38-40. While the judgment of a wide is strict in the one-day game, England and Australia can boast probably two of the most accurate bowling attacks and statistically, this looks a little high. In the three completed meetings between the two this summer, the totals have made up at 9, 12 and 13, an average of 11.33. If the same pattern continues, then the make up would be 34.

Another one to look at is the total 300-ups in the series. This concerns the total number of runs scored above 300 in any innings by both teams. Sporting's market is 20-25, but again, a brief look back at the three meetings this summer will tell you that neither side got anywhere near the 300 mark. Furthermore, in the past 50 one-day matches between the two sides, only once, when Australia scored 318-6 at the MCG in 2002/03, did a score pass the 300 mark. Sporting may be overestimating this one.

Perhaps they have been swayed by the introduction of the new rules surrounding substitutes, which are to be tested in the series. Each team can substitute one player per match, with the newcomer taking over the role already played by the starter. This may lead to a bit of extra batting strength, but even then it's unlikely to affect the 300-ups market. One other thing to note - if a match is not completed, then Sporting will allocate 9 to this market.

The other rule change concerns the number of overs when fielding restrictions are in place. Instead of just the first 15 overs, it's now 20 overs, but split up into the first 10 overs, and then two blocks of five overs, to be used at the discretion of the fielding captain. In a market concerning the runs scored in the first 10 overs of each innings, Sporting go 285-295. With just 10 overs to hit out rather than 15, I have a suspicion that each side will now go hell for leather initially, and this market could be massive. Even an average of six an over would make up at 360.